Lincoln Red Imps — Mjallby AIF: Win probabilities, 28.07.2026
Result
We predicted: X2 · Verdict: Miss
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 35.5% |
| 12 | 79.5% | |
| X2 | 84.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.9% / 45.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.2% / 17.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.2% / 39.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.8% / 62.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.4% / 79.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.6% / 90.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X1 | was 5.50 → now 5.75 |
| X | was 4.10 → now 4.33 |
Match preview
Lincoln Red Imps face Mjallby AIF in a UEFA Champions League qualification match where the visitors hold a clear, though not overwhelming, advantage. The available assessment points toward Mjallby AIF being the stronger side overall, while Lincoln Red Imps will need to make effective use of home advantage and remain disciplined against sustained pressure. The moderate confidence suggests that the balance is not entirely one-sided.
The match is projected to have a medium-scoring profile. A narrow Mjallby AIF victory appears consistent with the main scenarios, with scorelines such as 0-1 or 0-2, although a 1-1 draw is also within the range of plausible outcomes. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, so Lincoln Red Imps retain a realistic route to contributing on the scoresheet. Overall, the analytical signal favours Mjallby AIF, but the visitors may need patience to turn their superiority into a result.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.