GNK Dinamo Zagreb — FC Thun: Win probabilities, 28.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.2% |
| 12 | 83.0% | |
| X2 | 29.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.9% / 46.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.4% / 3.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.7% / 16.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.7% / 36.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.6% / 58.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.4% / 76.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
GNK Dinamo Zagreb host FC Thun in the UEFA Champions League qualification, with the available assessment giving the Croatian side a moderate but clear advantage. Dinamo Zagreb are rated as the stronger team, while the market signal also points towards a home win. That suggests the hosts should control more of the match, particularly if they establish possession and territory early.
The scoring outlook is relatively open, with a high-scoring game considered more likely than a tightly closed contest. At the same time, the expectation that both teams will score remains balanced rather than decisive, so FC Thun retain a realistic route to an attacking contribution. The most plausible scorelines are 2-0, 2-1 and 1-0, reflecting a range from controlled home superiority to a more competitive encounter. Overall, Dinamo Zagreb have the stronger profile, but the moderate confidence level leaves room for variation in how the tie develops.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.