GNK Dinamo Zagreb — FC Thun: Win probabilities, 28.07.2026
Result
We predicted: X1 · Verdict: Hit
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.2% |
| 12 | 83.0% | |
| X2 | 29.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.9% / 46.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.4% / 3.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.7% / 16.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.7% / 36.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.6% / 58.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.4% / 76.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
GNK Dinamo Zagreb host FC Thun in the UEFA Champions League qualification, with the available assessment giving the Croatian side a moderate but clear advantage. Dinamo Zagreb are rated as the stronger team, while the market signal also points towards a home win. That suggests the hosts should control more of the match, particularly if they establish possession and territory early.
The scoring outlook is relatively open, with a high-scoring game considered more likely than a tightly closed contest. At the same time, the expectation that both teams will score remains balanced rather than decisive, so FC Thun retain a realistic route to an attacking contribution. The most plausible scorelines are 2-0, 2-1 and 1-0, reflecting a range from controlled home superiority to a more competitive encounter. Overall, Dinamo Zagreb have the stronger profile, but the moderate confidence level leaves room for variation in how the tie develops.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.