Heart of Midlothian FC — SK Sturm Graz: Win probabilities, 28.07.2026
Result
We predicted: 1X · Verdict: Miss
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.0% |
| 12 | 77.5% | |
| X2 | 48.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.4% / 36.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.1% / 15.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.7% / 36.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.6% / 58.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.4% / 76.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X2 | was 3.75 → now 3.50 |
Match preview
Heart of Midlothian FC approach this UEFA Champions League qualification tie with a slight but credible advantage over SK Sturm Graz. The assessment points towards a competitive contest in which the home side has the stronger overall position, while a draw also remains a realistic outcome. That makes the home-or-draw scenario the more cautious reading of the matchup rather than an expectation of a one-sided game.
The attacking outlook is positive, with a high-scoring match anticipated and both Heart of Midlothian FC and SK Sturm Graz likely to find the net. The projected scorelines reflect a closely contested game: 1-1, 2-1, or 2-0. Heart of Midlothian FC therefore appear better placed to edge the tie, but SK Sturm Graz should have enough attacking threat to keep the result uncertain deep into the match.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.