Heart of Midlothian FC — SK Sturm Graz: Win probabilities, 28.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.0% |
| 12 | 77.5% | |
| X2 | 48.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.4% / 36.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.1% / 15.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.7% / 36.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.6% / 58.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.4% / 76.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.5% / 88.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Heart of Midlothian FC approach this UEFA Champions League qualification tie with a slight but credible advantage over SK Sturm Graz. The assessment points towards a competitive contest in which the home side has the stronger overall position, while a draw also remains a realistic outcome. That makes the home-or-draw scenario the more cautious reading of the matchup rather than an expectation of a one-sided game.
The attacking outlook is positive, with a high-scoring match anticipated and both Heart of Midlothian FC and SK Sturm Graz likely to find the net. The projected scorelines reflect a closely contested game: 1-1, 2-1, or 2-0. Heart of Midlothian FC therefore appear better placed to edge the tie, but SK Sturm Graz should have enough attacking threat to keep the result uncertain deep into the match.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.