FC Kairat Almaty — AC Omonia Nicosia: Win probabilities, 29.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.0% |
| 12 | 71.2% | |
| X2 | 55.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.0% / 51.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.1% / 9.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 70.3% / 29.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 43.3% / 56.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 22.4% / 77.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 9.7% / 90.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.6% / 96.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X2 | was 3.30 → now 3.40 |
Match preview
FC Kairat Almaty meet AC Omonia Nicosia in the UEFA Champions League qualification, with the hosts holding a slight edge. The assessment points toward a closely contested match in which home advantage gives FC Kairat Almaty the stronger overall position, while AC Omonia Nicosia remain capable of keeping the tie balanced. The main signal supports the hosts avoiding defeat rather than a clear separation between the teams.
The game is expected to produce a moderate amount of attacking activity, but there is no strong indication that both sides will score. That makes the match difficult to separate, with a draw a realistic possibility alongside a narrow home win. A low-margin contest appears more likely than an open, one-sided performance, and the key question may be whether AC Omonia Nicosia can turn their resistance into a decisive attacking contribution.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.