Newell's Old Boys — Velez Sarsfield: Win probabilities, 11.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 66.1% |
| 12 | 68.5% | |
| X2 | 65.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.8% / 53.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.0% / 12.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 66.9% / 33.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 38.8% / 61.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 18.9% / 81.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 7.7% / 92.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.7% / 97.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Rosario Central 1:1
- 31.08.2026 away Estudiantes L.P. 0:0
- 23.08.2026 home Banfield 2:1
- 15.08.2026 home Dep. Riestra 2:0
- 09.08.2026 away Defensa y Justicia 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home Estudiantes L.P. 1:0
- 29.08.2026 away Dep. Riestra 1:1
- 23.08.2026 away River Plate 2:2
- 17.08.2026 home Defensa y Justicia 1:1
- 08.08.2026 away Boca Juniors 1:1
This season: Newell's Old Boys at home vs Velez Sarsfield away
| Metric | Newell's Old Boys · at home | Velez Sarsfield · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 4–5–3 | 4–7–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.08 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.08 | 0.92 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 04.05.2026 Velez Sarsfield 1:1 Newell's Old Boys
- 22.05.2024 Velez Sarsfield 1:0 Newell's Old Boys
- 03.02.2023 Newell's Old Boys 1:0 Velez Sarsfield
- 03.09.2022 Velez Sarsfield 0:1 Newell's Old Boys
- 09.10.2021 Newell's Old Boys 1:2 Velez Sarsfield
- 13.02.2021 Velez Sarsfield 1:0 Newell's Old Boys
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Newell's Old Boys and Velez Sarsfield appear evenly matched ahead of their Primera LPF, Clausura meeting. The available assessment points to a cautious game with limited scoring opportunities, making control in midfield and defensive discipline especially important. Neither side has a clear overall advantage, so the match may be decided by small details rather than sustained dominance from either team.
The scoring outlook is low, while the prospect of both teams finding the net remains finely balanced. A draw is a credible scenario, with 1:1 and 0:0 among the more plausible scorelines, although a narrow 1:0 result for Newell's Old Boys is also consistent with the assessment. Overall, there is a moderate level of confidence in a tight contest, with a slight protective edge toward the hosts in the broader result signal.
What matters before kick-off
Torneo Clausura 2026 matchday 9 fixture
The match between Newell's Old Boys and Vélez Sarsfield is scheduled for Friday, September 11, 2026, as part of matchday 9 in Zone A of the Argentine Torneo Clausura.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.