Defensa y Justicia — Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: Win probabilities, 11.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.6% |
| 12 | 73.8% | |
| X2 | 51.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.0% / 8.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.6% / 27.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.0% / 53.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.4% / 74.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.6% / 88.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.6% / 95.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.10 → now 2.00 |
| X | was 3.30 → now 3.60 |
Match preview
Defensa y Justicia enter this Primera LPF, Clausura fixture with a narrow advantage over Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza. The assessment points toward the hosts having the stronger overall position, although the margin is not large enough to dismiss the visitors’ chances of taking something from the match. The 1X signal supports a cautious view in which Defensa y Justicia are favoured to avoid defeat, rather than a decisive separation between the teams.
The game is projected to produce a moderate amount of scoring, with the most plausible outcomes clustered around a close contest. A 1-1 draw, 1-0 home win, or 2-1 home win all fit the expected balance, highlighting how limited the difference may be on the scoreboard. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, so that aspect should be treated as finely balanced. Overall, Defensa y Justicia hold the clearer edge, but Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza remain capable of keeping the match competitive through the final stages.
What matters before kick-off
Gimnasia Mendoza squad absences
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza forward Agustín Módica is sidelined with an injury, while midfielder Tomás O'Connor misses out after suffering a muscle strain against Boca Juniors.
Teams' recent match results
In matchday 8, Defensa y Justicia suffered a 1-0 away loss to Lanús, while Gimnasia Mendoza played out a 2-2 draw against Boca Juniors.
Defensa y Justicia home record
Defensa y Justicia enter matchday 9 undefeated at home so far in the Torneo Clausura.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.