Defensa y Justicia — Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: Win probabilities, 11.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.6% |
| 12 | 73.8% | |
| X2 | 51.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.5% / 49.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.0% / 8.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.6% / 27.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.0% / 53.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.4% / 74.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.6% / 88.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.6% / 95.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Lanus 0:1
- 31.08.2026 home Platense 1:0
- 23.08.2026 away Belgrano 2:1
- 17.08.2026 away Velez Sarsfield 1:1
- 09.08.2026 home Newells Old Boys 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Boca Juniors 2:2
- 30.08.2026 away Independiente 3:0
- 22.08.2026 away Gimnasia L.P. 3:2
- 18.08.2026 home Talleres Cordoba 3:1
- 09.08.2026 away Instituto 0:1
This season: Defensa y Justicia at home vs Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza away
| Metric | Defensa y Justicia · at home | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 4–6–2 | 3–3–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.08 | 0.92 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.08 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 42% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 42% |
Head-to-head · Last 1 meetings
- 04.05.2026 Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 2:1 Defensa y Justicia
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Defensa y Justicia enter this Primera LPF, Clausura fixture with a narrow advantage over Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza. The assessment points toward the hosts having the stronger overall position, although the margin is not large enough to dismiss the visitors’ chances of taking something from the match. The 1X signal supports a cautious view in which Defensa y Justicia are favoured to avoid defeat, rather than a decisive separation between the teams.
The game is projected to produce a moderate amount of scoring, with the most plausible outcomes clustered around a close contest. A 1-1 draw, 1-0 home win, or 2-1 home win all fit the expected balance, highlighting how limited the difference may be on the scoreboard. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, so that aspect should be treated as finely balanced. Overall, Defensa y Justicia hold the clearer edge, but Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza remain capable of keeping the match competitive through the final stages.
What matters before kick-off
Gimnasia Mendoza squad absences
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza forward Agustín Módica is sidelined with an injury, while midfielder Tomás O'Connor misses out after suffering a muscle strain against Boca Juniors.
Teams' recent match results
In matchday 8, Defensa y Justicia suffered a 1-0 away loss to Lanús, while Gimnasia Mendoza played out a 2-2 draw against Boca Juniors.
Defensa y Justicia home record
Defensa y Justicia enter matchday 9 undefeated at home so far in the Torneo Clausura.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.