Estudiantes de La Plata — CA Platense: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.7% |
| 12 | 68.7% | |
| X2 | 50.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 42.5% / 57.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 86.7% / 13.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 65.6% / 34.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 36.9% / 63.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 17.4% / 82.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 6.9% / 93.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.3% / 97.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Velez Sarsfield 0:1
- 31.08.2026 home Newells Old Boys 0:0
- 23.08.2026 away Sarmiento Junin 0:2
- 15.08.2026 home Gimnasia L.P. 4:0
- 08.08.2026 away Dep. Riestra 0:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 04.09.2026 home Dep. Riestra 1:1
- 31.08.2026 away Defensa y Justicia 0:1
- 23.08.2026 away Barracas Central 2:1
- 16.08.2026 home Boca Juniors 1:1
- 09.08.2026 away Independiente 1:0
This season: Estudiantes de La Plata at home vs CA Platense away
| Metric | Estudiantes de La Plata · at home | CA Platense · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 7–2–3 | 3–5–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 0.83 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.50 | 0.92 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 17% | 42% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 03.05.2026 CA Platense 0:2 Estudiantes de La Plata
- 15.09.2024 Estudiantes de La Plata 1:1 CA Platense
- 06.03.2024 Estudiantes de La Plata 1:2 CA Platense
- 18.10.2023 CA Platense 2:1 Estudiantes de La Plata
- 28.04.2023 CA Platense 1:2 Estudiantes de La Plata
- 04.09.2022 CA Platense 0:0 Estudiantes de La Plata
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Estudiantes de La Plata have a slight edge over CA Platense in this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting. The overall assessment points toward the hosts being the more likely side to avoid defeat, although the margin between the teams is not expected to be large. That makes a controlled home performance and a match decided by small details the more plausible scenario.
The game is projected to be low-scoring, with limited room for either attack to dominate. A draw remains a realistic possibility, and whether both teams find the net is difficult to separate. The main scorelines indicated are 1:1, 1:0, and 0:0, reflecting a contest where defensive structure and efficiency in the decisive moments could be more important than sustained attacking pressure.
What matters before kick-off
Squad rotation due to Copa Libertadores
Both Estudiantes de La Plata and CA Platense manage squad rotations for this fixture due to their upcoming mid-week Copa Libertadores quarter-final second-leg matches.
Matchday 9 of Torneo Clausura 2026
Estudiantes de La Plata host CA Platense at Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi in matchday 9 of Zone A, with referee Maximiliano Mascheroni officiating.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.