Atletico Tucuman — CA River Plate (ARG): Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 56.6% |
| 12 | 67.6% | |
| X2 | 75.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.6% / 53.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.3% / 12.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 67.9% / 32.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 39.1% / 60.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 19.1% / 80.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 7.8% / 92.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.7% / 97.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 4.00 → now 3.80 |
| X | was 3.00 → now 2.90 |
| W2 | was 2.10 → now 2.20 |
Match preview
Atletico Tucuman face CA River Plate (ARG) in a contest where the visitors hold a slight edge. The assessment has high confidence, but it points more toward protection against a home defeat than toward a decisive away victory. The X2 signal reflects that balance, making a draw or a CA River Plate (ARG) win the preferred outcome range.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, although the goals outlook remains relatively open. Both teams scoring is considered a coin flip, so neither side has a clear attacking advantage in that respect. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 0:0, and 0:1, which underline the possibility of a controlled match with limited separation between the teams. Atletico Tucuman will need to keep the game compact, while CA River Plate (ARG) appear better placed to avoid defeat.
What matters before kick-off
Atlético Tucumán's unbeaten run
Atlético Tucumán head into matchday 9 of the Torneo Clausura following a 2-1 victory over Racing Club, extending their unbeaten streak across all competitions to five matches.
River Plate's consecutive wins
River Plate enter the fixture having secured back-to-back league victories against Banfield and Independiente Rivadavia (3-1) under interim coach Leonardo Ponzio.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.