Atletico Tucuman — CA River Plate (ARG): Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 56.6% |
| 12 | 67.6% | |
| X2 | 75.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.9% / 53.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.4% / 12.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.2% / 31.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 39.4% / 60.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 19.3% / 80.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 7.9% / 92.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.8% / 97.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 12.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 07.09.2026 away Racing Club 2:1
- 30.08.2026 home Belgrano 0:0
- 22.08.2026 home Instituto 0:0
- 17.08.2026 away Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 1:0
- 08.08.2026 home Sarmiento Junin 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 home Ind. Rivadavia 3:1
- 30.08.2026 away Banfield 3:2
- 23.08.2026 home Velez Sarsfield 2:2
- 16.08.2026 home Argentinos Jrs 2:0
- 08.08.2026 away Tigre 0:1
This season: Atletico Tucuman at home vs CA River Plate (ARG) away
| Metric | Atletico Tucuman · at home | CA River Plate (ARG) · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 2–8–2 | 5–2–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.75 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 27% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 03.05.2026 CA River Plate (ARG) 0:1 Atletico Tucuman
- 21.09.2025 Atletico Tucuman 2:0 CA River Plate (ARG)
- 09.03.2025 CA River Plate (ARG) 1:0 Atletico Tucuman
- 14.09.2024 CA River Plate (ARG) 4:1 Atletico Tucuman
- 15.02.2024 Atletico Tucuman 0:0 CA River Plate (ARG)
- 22.09.2023 CA River Plate (ARG) 1:0 Atletico Tucuman
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Atletico Tucuman host CA River Plate (ARG) in the Primera LPF, Clausura, with the assessment pointing to a slight but meaningful edge for the visitors. The outlook is relatively clear in qualitative terms, although the expected balance of the match remains cautious rather than open. CA River Plate (ARG) appear better positioned to avoid defeat, while Atletico Tucuman will look to make home advantage count in a closely contested fixture.
The scoring projection suggests a low-scoring game. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 0:0 and 0:1, indicating limited attacking output and a significant possibility of a draw. Whether both teams score is considered finely balanced, so neither side has a clear advantage in that specific area. Overall, the strongest signal supports CA River Plate (ARG) avoiding defeat, with a narrow away win or a stalemate more consistent with the available assessment than a high-scoring match.
What matters before kick-off
Aníbal Moreno ruled out for River Plate's trip
River Plate midfielder Aníbal Moreno was ruled out of the squad traveling to face Atlético Tucumán.
Atlético Tucumán ahead of the match following a win over Racing
In their previous league fixture, Atlético Tucumán secured a 2–1 away victory against Racing Club.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.