CA Sarmiento Junin — CA Belgrano de Cordoba: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 60.2% |
| 12 | 67.4% | |
| X2 | 72.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.9% / 53.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.3% / 12.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 67.6% / 32.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 38.8% / 61.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 18.9% / 81.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 7.7% / 92.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.7% / 97.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
CA Sarmiento Junin and CA Belgrano de Cordoba meet in the Primera LPF, Clausura in a contest that appears evenly matched. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, with a moderate level of confidence in that reading. The game is projected to have a medium-scoring profile, suggesting a balanced tactical contest rather than one expected to be dominated by either attack.
The possibility of both teams scoring remains finely balanced, so the match could develop through cautious phases or open up as the game progresses. CA Belgrano de Cordoba has a slight edge in the broader market signal, but the draw remains a central part of the outlook. Overall, the most credible scenario is a close encounter in which margins are limited and the result may depend on efficiency in key moments rather than sustained superiority.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.