CA Talleres de Cordoba — Union de Santa Fe: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.5% |
| 12 | 68.8% | |
| X2 | 57.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.7% / 53.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.1% / 11.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 67.7% / 32.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 39.6% / 60.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 19.4% / 80.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.0% / 92.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.8% / 97.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.16 → now 2.25 |
| X | was 3.20 → now 3.00 |
Match preview
CA Talleres de Cordoba have a clear but narrow advantage over Union de Santa Fe in this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting. The assessment points toward the home side avoiding defeat, with the hosts holding the stronger position while a draw remains a realistic possibility. This is not a matchup that suggests a dominant gap between the teams, so control of the decisive moments may be more important than sustained superiority.
The scoring outlook is moderate rather than extreme. Both teams scoring is finely balanced, which leaves several plausible paths for the match: a tight home win, a low-scoring draw, or a more open level contest. The leading scoreline indications are 1-1 and 1-0, with 0-0 also consistent with the cautious nature of the projection. Overall, CA Talleres de Cordoba carry the slight edge, but Union de Santa Fe remain capable of making the result competitive through a disciplined performance.
What matters before kick-off
Matías Galarza suspended for Talleres
Talleres de Cordoba midfielder Matías Galarza is unavailable against Unión de Santa Fe after receiving a red card in their previous match against San Lorenzo.
Contrasting recent results heading into round 9
In their previous Torneo Clausura matches, Talleres de Cordoba suffered a 1-0 defeat to San Lorenzo, while Unión de Santa Fe defeated Instituto 3-2.
Head-to-head history in Córdoba
Across 49 top-flight matches between Talleres and Unión de Santa Fe, Talleres have won 18 and lost 12. Out of 22 meetings in Córdoba, Talleres have won 11 times while Unión have managed just one win.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.