Independiente Rivadavia — CA Aldosivi: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.8% |
| 12 | 79.0% | |
| X2 | 31.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 43.2% / 56.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.5% / 7.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.1% / 23.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.9% / 49.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.8% / 71.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.9% / 86.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.8% / 94.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.48 → now 1.42 |
| X | was 4.00 → now 4.33 |
| W2 | was 8.00 → now 8.50 |
Match preview
Independiente Rivadavia have the clearer outlook against CA Aldosivi in this Primera LPF, Clausura fixture. The available assessment gives the hosts a moderate but meaningful advantage, suggesting they are clearly stronger overall without making the match outcome certain. The expected pattern points toward a medium-scoring contest, with Independiente Rivadavia more likely to control the important phases and create the better platform for a home win.
The scoring outlook remains balanced in one important respect: both teams scoring is described as a coin flip. That leaves room for several plausible match scripts. The main scoreline indications are 2:0 and 1:0 in favour of Independiente Rivadavia, while 1:1 is also considered possible if CA Aldosivi can stay compact and make their opportunities count. Overall, the hosts hold the edge, but the moderate confidence level points to a match where the margin may remain narrow rather than an overwhelmingly one-sided contest.
What matters before kick-off
Independiente Rivadavia's previous result
On September 6, 2026, Independiente Rivadavia suffered a 3-1 away defeat to River Plate in matchday 8 of the Torneo Clausura.
Recent Copa Argentina encounter
In August 2026, Independiente Rivadavia defeated Aldosivi in the Copa Argentina round of 16 to advance to the quarter-finals.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.