Boca Juniors — CA Central Cordoba SE: Win probabilities, 12.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.6% |
| 12 | 76.3% | |
| X2 | 38.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 43.3% / 56.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.3% / 8.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 71.7% / 28.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 45.5% / 54.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.2% / 75.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.8% / 89.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.2% / 95.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.44 → now 1.57 |
| X | was 4.33 → now 3.90 |
| W2 | was 7.50 → now 6.25 |
Match preview
Boca Juniors meet CA Central Cordoba SE in the Primera LPF, Clausura, with the available assessment giving the hosts a clear but not overwhelming edge. The confidence is moderate, so the match should be approached as a contest in which Boca Juniors are better placed, rather than as a foregone conclusion. The scoring outlook is medium, suggesting a game that may develop without becoming especially open.
CA Central Cordoba SE remain capable of making the contest competitive, particularly because the assessment of both teams scoring is finely balanced. That makes the defensive details and the timing of the first goal important factors in how the match unfolds. The most plausible scorelines point toward a narrow Boca Juniors victory, with a controlled win also possible, while a draw remains part of the realistic range. Overall, Boca Juniors hold the stronger position, but the moderate confidence level argues for a measured reading of the home advantage.
What matters before kick-off
Busy schedule for Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors enter the domestic fixture just days after securing a 1-0 win against São Paulo in the first leg of the CONMEBOL Sudamericana quarter-finals.
Camilo Rey Domenech sidelined for Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors midfielder Camilo Rey Domenech suffered an adductor muscle tear during training and has been ruled out of the match against Central Córdoba.
Central Córdoba looking to break winless streak
Central Córdoba enter the match on a four-game winless run after losing 1-0 at home to Independiente in their last outing.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.