CA Tigre — CA Rosario Central: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 64.7% |
| 12 | 66.9% | |
| X2 | 68.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.1% / 53.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 86.9% / 13.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 66.2% / 33.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 37.4% / 62.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 17.8% / 82.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 7.1% / 92.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.4% / 97.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.80 → now 3.00 |
| W2 | was 2.88 → now 2.70 |
Match preview
CA Tigre and CA Rosario Central meet in the Primera LPF, Clausura in a fixture that looks evenly matched. The available assessment gives the hosts and visitors comparable chances, with only moderate confidence in the overall reading. That suggests a cautious contest in which neither side is expected to establish clear control for long periods.
The scoring outlook is low, making defensive structure and the management of limited opportunities particularly important. Whether both teams find the net is difficult to separate, so the match could turn on one decisive moment or remain balanced throughout. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 0:0 and 0:1, reflecting a narrow range between a stalemate and a slight edge for CA Rosario Central. Overall, the away-or-draw direction is marginally more supported, but the central expectation remains a tight and competitive match rather than a game with a clear favourite.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.