Argentinos Juniors — Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.0% |
| 12 | 72.0% | |
| X2 | 45.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 46.9% / 53.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.8% / 10.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.2% / 27.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 44.7% / 55.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 23.4% / 76.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.0% / 96.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 07.09.2026 away Barracas Central 0:0
- 30.08.2026 home Aldosivi 2:1
- 25.08.2026 away Lanus 1:1
- 16.08.2026 away River Plate 0:2
- 10.08.2026 home Racing Club 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Tigre 2:1
- 29.08.2026 away Rosario Central 2:1
- 22.08.2026 home Gimnasia Mendoza 2:3
- 15.08.2026 away Estudiantes L.P. 0:4
- 09.08.2026 home Barracas Central 2:0
This season: Argentinos Juniors at home vs Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata away
| Metric | Argentinos Juniors · at home | Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 10–5–0 | 7–1–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.47 | 1.36 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 43% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 03.05.2026 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 2:0 Argentinos Juniors
- 02.09.2024 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 1:0 Argentinos Juniors
- 06.03.2024 Argentinos Juniors 2:0 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
- 19.10.2023 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 3:2 Argentinos Juniors
- 25.04.2023 Argentinos Juniors 2:4 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata
- 17.10.2022 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata 0:0 Argentinos Juniors
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Argentinos Juniors have a slight edge over Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata, although the low confidence attached to that assessment points to a closely balanced contest. The home side appears marginally better placed to control the match, but the gap between the teams is not large enough to expect a straightforward game. Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata should remain competitive if they can keep the structure compact and limit Argentinos Juniors’ opportunities in central areas.
The scoring outlook is moderate rather than open, with the main indications pointing toward a controlled match and a relatively limited total. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so either side could contribute without that being a clear expectation. The most plausible score patterns are 1-1, 1-0, and 2-0, which reflect the narrow home advantage and the possibility of a restrained attacking contest. Overall, Argentinos Juniors hold the stronger position, but the match remains finely balanced.
What matters before kick-off
Alan Lescano Transfer
Argentinos Juniors head into the match without key midfielder Alan Lescano, who completed a $7.5 million transfer to Brazilian side Vasco da Gama.
Standings Context
Argentinos Juniors enter the fixture as sole leaders of Zone B with 17 points following a 0-0 draw against Barracas Central. Gimnasia y Esgrima trail by just two points after recording back-to-back 2-1 victories over Rosario Central and Tigre.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.