CA Independiente Avellaneda — CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.6% |
| 12 | 69.4% | |
| X2 | 54.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 42.5% / 57.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.3% / 12.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 64.2% / 35.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 36.2% / 63.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 17.0% / 83.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 6.7% / 93.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.2% / 97.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Central Cordoba 1:0
- 30.08.2026 home Gimnasia Mendoza 0:3
- 22.08.2026 home Ind. Rivadavia 0:0
- 17.08.2026 away Lanus 3:1
- 09.08.2026 home Platense 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Talleres Cordoba 1:0
- 01.09.2026 away Instituto 0:1
- 22.08.2026 away Estudiantes Rio Cuarto 0:0
- 15.08.2026 home Union de Santa Fe 1:0
- 09.08.2026 home Huracan 0:2
This season: CA Independiente Avellaneda at home vs CA San Lorenzo de Almagro away
| Metric | CA Independiente Avellaneda · at home | CA San Lorenzo de Almagro · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 5–4–3 | 2–7–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.33 | 0.38 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.08 | 0.54 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 23% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 02.05.2026 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 1:2 CA Independiente Avellaneda
- 21.09.2025 CA Independiente Avellaneda 1:1 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro
- 08.03.2025 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 1:2 CA Independiente Avellaneda
- 03.08.2024 CA Independiente Avellaneda 0:0 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro
- 01.04.2023 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 0:0 CA Independiente Avellaneda
- 04.06.2022 CA San Lorenzo de Almagro 1:1 CA Independiente Avellaneda
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CA Independiente Avellaneda have a slight but meaningful edge over CA San Lorenzo de Almagro in this Primera LPF, Clausura fixture. The assessment points toward a closely contested match in which the hosts are marginally better placed, while the draw remains a central possibility. That makes a home win or draw the most coherent overall outcome, rather than a clear separation between the teams.
The game is expected to be low-scoring, with limited room for either side to build a decisive advantage. The main scoreline possibilities are 1:1, 1:0 and 0:0, reflecting the balance between a narrow home advantage and a cautious match profile. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, so the key question may be which side manages the few important moments more effectively. CA Independiente Avellaneda should have the stronger platform, but CA San Lorenzo de Almagro remain capable of keeping the contest level.
What matters before kick-off
Rubén Darío Insua returns for third spell at San Lorenzo
Head coach Rubén Darío Insua starts his third tenure at San Lorenzo in their matchday 9 Clausura fixture against Independiente. He takes over following Néstor Gorosito's brief eight-match reign.
Recent round 8 results for both sides
In round 8 of the Clausura tournament, Independiente secured a 1-0 away victory over Central Córdoba, while San Lorenzo won 1-0 at home against Talleres.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.