CA Independiente Avellaneda — CA San Lorenzo de Almagro: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.7% |
| 12 | 69.4% | |
| X2 | 52.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 42.2% / 57.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.2% / 12.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 64.3% / 35.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 36.2% / 63.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 17.0% / 83.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 6.7% / 93.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.2% / 97.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W2 | was 4.33 → now 4.20 |
Match preview
CA Independiente Avellaneda hold a slight but meaningful edge over CA San Lorenzo de Almagro in this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting. The available assessment points toward a cautious match, with limited scoring expected and little to separate the teams in attacking terms. That suggests the hosts’ advantage is more likely to come from control, structure and home conditions than from a high-tempo attacking display.
The outlook favours CA Independiente Avellaneda in the result market, while a draw remains a credible possibility. Both teams scoring is difficult to assess and appears finely balanced, so neither side has a clear attacking advantage in that respect. CA San Lorenzo de Almagro should remain competitive if the match stays tight, but the overall signal gives CA Independiente Avellaneda the stronger position, particularly in a game where one goal could have considerable influence.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.