Newell's Old Boys — Boca Juniors: Win probabilities, 02.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 57.0% |
| 12 | 69.2% | |
| X2 | 73.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.3% / 52.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 88.5% / 11.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.5% / 31.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 40.5% / 59.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 20.1% / 79.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.4% / 91.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.0% / 97.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Newell's Old Boys face Boca Juniors in a match that projects as a balanced contest with a slight edge for the visitors. Boca Juniors appear better positioned in the overall outcome assessment, although the gap is not wide enough to remove the draw from consideration. Newell's Old Boys should remain competitive at home, while Boca’s advantage points toward a result in which they avoid defeat.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring rather than particularly open or defensive. Both teams scoring remains difficult to separate, so either side finding the net is plausible without being a strong expectation. The most representative scorelines are 1-1, 0-1, and 0-0, reflecting the narrow difference between the teams and the possibility of a controlled match. Overall, Boca Juniors have the stronger position in the analysis, but Newell's Old Boys have a realistic chance of securing at least a share of the points.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.