Newcastle United — Everton: Win probabilities, 02.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
42.9%
Home win
Newcastle United
X
25.9%
Draw
W2
31.3%
Away win
Everton
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1274.1%
Both teams to score
Yes59.3%
Totals 2.5
Over55.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.7% |
| 12 | 74.1% | |
| X2 | 57.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.3% / 40.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.6% / 20.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.9% / 44.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.5% / 66.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.2% / 82.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.6% / 92.4% |
Goal distribution model
Newcastle United × Everton
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.1%
0:1
6.4%
0:2
4.8%
0:3
2.1%
0:4
0.7%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
7.8%
1:1
12.1%
1:2
7.6%
1:3
3.4%
1:4
1.1%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
6.8%
2:1
9.1%
2:2
6.0%
2:3
2.7%
2:4
0.9%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
3.6%
3:1
4.8%
3:2
3.2%
3:3
1.4%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.4%
4:1
1.9%
4:2
1.3%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.5%
5:1
0.6%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.1%
2:19.1%
1:07.8%
1:27.6%
2:06.8%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 02.11.2026
Newcastle United
8th place · 11 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Crystal Palace 2:0
- 17.10.2026 home Aston Villa 0:1
- 12.10.2026 away Coventry 1:4
- 19.09.2026 home Hull 2:1
- 14.09.2026 away Leeds 1:4
Everton
11th place · 10 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Arsenal 0:2
- 17.10.2026 home Chelsea 0:2
- 11.10.2026 away Hull 2:2
- 19.09.2026 home Ipswich 1:0
- 12.09.2026 away Tottenham 0:0
This season: Newcastle United at home vs Everton away
| Metric | Newcastle United · at home | Everton · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–2–1 | 0–3–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.25 |
| xG for per match | 1.18 | 1.32 |
| xG against per match | 1.88 | 1.53 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.50 | 5.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Newcastle United wins1
Draws2
Everton wins3
Goals per match2.67
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 28.02.2026 Newcastle United 2:3 Everton
- 29.11.2025 Everton 1:4 Newcastle United
- 25.05.2025 Newcastle United 0:1 Everton
- 05.10.2024 Everton 0:0 Newcastle United
- 02.04.2024 Newcastle United 1:1 Everton
- 07.12.2023 Everton 3:0 Newcastle United
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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