Aston Villa — Fulham: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
47.6%
Home win
Aston Villa
X
25.7%
Draw
W2
26.6%
Away win
Fulham
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1274.3%
Both teams to score
Yes54.3%
Totals 2.5
Over51.1%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.4% |
| 12 | 74.3% | |
| X2 | 52.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.3% / 45.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.0% / 7.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.9% / 24.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.1% / 48.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.0% / 71.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.0% / 86.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.8% / 94.2% |
Goal distribution model
Aston Villa × Fulham
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
7.0%
0:1
7.0%
0:2
4.2%
0:3
1.6%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
10.1%
1:1
12.2%
1:2
6.7%
1:3
2.5%
1:4
0.7%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
8.3%
2:1
9.4%
2:2
5.3%
2:3
2.0%
2:4
0.6%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
4.4%
3:1
5.0%
3:2
2.8%
3:3
1.1%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.8%
4:1
2.0%
4:2
1.1%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.6%
5:1
0.6%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.2%
1:010.1%
2:19.4%
2:08.3%
0:17.0%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
Aston Villa
9th place · 11 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Man City 2:1
- 17.10.2026 away Newcastle 1:0
- 10.10.2026 home Brentford 2:2
- 19.09.2026 away Tottenham 3:2
- 12.09.2026 home Nott'm Forest 1:2
Fulham
15th place · 8 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Coventry 1:0
- 17.10.2026 home Hull 1:0
- 10.10.2026 away Ipswich 1:2
- 20.09.2026 home Man United 1:1
- 12.09.2026 away Liverpool 0:0
This season: Aston Villa at home vs Fulham away
| Metric | Aston Villa · at home | Fulham · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–1–2 | 1–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.25 | 0.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| xG for per match | 1.01 | 1.00 |
| xG against per match | 1.49 | 1.24 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Corners per match | 3.50 | 5.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 25% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Aston Villa wins5
Draws0
Fulham wins1
Goals per match2.83
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 25.04.2026 Fulham 1:0 Aston Villa
- 28.09.2025 Aston Villa 3:1 Fulham
- 03.05.2025 Aston Villa 1:0 Fulham
- 19.10.2024 Fulham 1:3 Aston Villa
- 17.02.2024 Fulham 1:2 Aston Villa
- 12.11.2023 Aston Villa 3:1 Fulham
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.98 → now 2.05 |
| W2 | was 3.85 → now 3.60 |
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