Bournemouth — Leeds United: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
46.0%
Home win
Bournemouth
X
26.9%
Draw
W2
27.0%
Away win
Leeds United
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.1%
Both teams to score
Yes54.7%
Totals 2.5
Over50.7%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.0% |
| 12 | 73.1% | |
| X2 | 54.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 54.7% / 45.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.4% / 7.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.1% / 23.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 50.7% / 49.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.7% / 71.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.8% / 86.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.7% / 94.3% |
Goal distribution model
Bournemouth × Leeds United
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
7.6%
0:1
6.8%
0:2
4.4%
0:3
1.7%
0:4
0.5%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
9.6%
1:1
12.8%
1:2
6.8%
1:3
2.6%
1:4
0.7%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
8.1%
2:1
9.3%
2:2
5.3%
2:3
2.0%
2:4
0.6%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
4.2%
3:1
4.8%
3:2
2.8%
3:3
1.1%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.6%
4:1
1.9%
4:2
1.1%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.5%
5:1
0.6%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.8%
1:09.6%
2:19.3%
2:08.1%
0:07.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
Bournemouth
13th place · 9 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Man United 3:0
- 18.10.2026 home Sunderland 2:0
- 10.10.2026 away Chelsea 1:5
- 20.09.2026 home Liverpool 0:1
- 12.09.2026 home Brentford 2:2
Leeds United
7th place · 11 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Sunderland 0:0
- 18.10.2026 home Man United 1:1
- 10.10.2026 away Arsenal 1:2
- 20.09.2026 home Crystal Palace 0:0
- 14.09.2026 home Newcastle 4:1
This season: Bournemouth at home vs Leeds United away
| Metric | Bournemouth · at home | Leeds United · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–2–1 | 1–2–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| xG for per match | 2.23 | 1.09 |
| xG against per match | 1.02 | 1.51 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.75 | 4.25 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 4.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
Bournemouth wins1
Draws2
Leeds United wins1
Goals per match5.00
Both teams scored4/4
Over 2.5 goals4/4
- 22.04.2026 Bournemouth 2:2 Leeds United
- 27.09.2025 Leeds United 2:2 Bournemouth
- 30.04.2023 Bournemouth 4:1 Leeds United
- 05.11.2022 Leeds United 4:3 Bournemouth
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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