Chelsea — Manchester United: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
54.4%
Home win
Chelsea
X
23.2%
Draw
W2
22.4%
Away win
Manchester United
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X77.6%
Both teams to score
Yes69.5%
Totals 2.5
Over71.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.6% |
| 12 | 76.8% | |
| X2 | 45.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.5% / 30.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.9% / 4.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.7% / 10.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.0% / 29.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.0% / 50.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.7% / 69.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.6% / 83.4% |
Goal distribution model
Chelsea × Manchester United
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.1%
0:1
2.1%
0:2
2.6%
0:3
1.2%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
4.1%
1:1
9.7%
1:2
5.8%
1:3
2.8%
1:4
1.0%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
6.4%
2:1
9.1%
2:2
6.5%
2:3
3.1%
2:4
1.1%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
4.8%
3:1
6.8%
3:2
4.9%
3:3
2.3%
3:4
0.8%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
2.7%
4:1
3.8%
4:2
2.7%
4:3
1.3%
4:4
0.5%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
1.2%
5:1
1.7%
5:2
1.2%
5:3
0.6%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:19.7%
2:19.1%
3:16.8%
2:26.5%
2:06.4%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
Chelsea
5th place · 13 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Tottenham 0:2
- 17.10.2026 away Everton 2:0
- 10.10.2026 home Bournemouth 5:1
- 18.09.2026 away Brentford 0:3
- 12.09.2026 home Hull 2:2
Manchester United
16th place · 7 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Bournemouth 0:3
- 18.10.2026 away Leeds 1:1
- 10.10.2026 home Tottenham 1:1
- 20.09.2026 away Fulham 1:1
- 13.09.2026 home Man City 0:1
This season: Chelsea at home vs Manchester United away
| Metric | Chelsea · at home | Manchester United · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 2–1–1 | 0–3–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.75 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.35 | 1.26 |
| xG against per match | 1.23 | 1.26 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.75 | 4.25 |
| Corners per match | 4.75 | 6.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Chelsea wins2
Draws1
Manchester United wins3
Goals per match2.83
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 18.04.2026 Chelsea 0:1 Manchester United
- 20.09.2025 Manchester United 2:1 Chelsea
- 16.05.2025 Chelsea 1:0 Manchester United
- 03.11.2024 Manchester United 1:1 Chelsea
- 04.04.2024 Chelsea 4:3 Manchester United
- 06.12.2023 Manchester United 2:1 Chelsea
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| X | was 3.95 → now 4.10 |
Check current terms · 1WIN18+
Bonus up to $500
Sports betting, live markets and mobile app. Available only to users of legal gambling age in eligible regions.
Check available odds ↗
Other matches
Tools
Check the numbers before deciding
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.