Manchester City — Brighton and Hove Albion: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
60.2%
Home win
Manchester City
X
20.4%
Draw
W2
19.3%
Away win
Brighton and Hove Albion
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X80.7%
Both teams to score
Yes66.4%
Totals 2.5
Over70.5%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.7% |
| 12 | 79.6% | |
| X2 | 39.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.4% / 33.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.5% / 11.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.5% / 29.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.4% / 50.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.2% / 69.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.2% / 83.8% |
Goal distribution model
Manchester City × Brighton and Hove Albion
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.3%
0:1
2.7%
0:2
2.2%
0:3
0.9%
0:4
0.3%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
5.5%
1:1
8.6%
1:2
5.1%
1:3
2.2%
1:4
0.7%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
7.2%
2:1
9.3%
2:2
6.0%
2:3
2.6%
2:4
0.8%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
5.6%
3:1
7.3%
3:2
4.7%
3:3
2.0%
3:4
0.7%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
3.3%
4:1
4.3%
4:2
2.8%
4:3
1.2%
4:4
0.4%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
1.6%
5:1
2.0%
5:2
1.3%
5:3
0.6%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:19.3%
1:18.6%
3:17.3%
2:07.2%
2:26.1%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
Manchester City
1st place · 21 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Aston Villa 1:2
- 17.10.2026 home Ipswich 3:2
- 11.10.2026 away Liverpool 3:0
- 20.09.2026 home Sunderland 5:3
- 13.09.2026 away Man United 1:0
Brighton and Hove Albion
3rd place · 16 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Liverpool 0:2
- 18.10.2026 home Crystal Palace 5:0
- 10.10.2026 away Sunderland 2:0
- 19.09.2026 home Arsenal 3:0
- 13.09.2026 away Coventry 5:0
This season: Manchester City at home vs Brighton and Hove Albion away
| Metric | Manchester City · at home | Brighton and Hove Albion · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 4–0–0 | 2–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.75 | 2.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 2.71 | 1.73 |
| xG against per match | 1.81 | 1.55 |
| Shots on target per match | 5.50 | 4.50 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 4.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 25% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Manchester City wins2
Draws2
Brighton and Hove Albion wins2
Goals per match3.17
Both teams scored5/6
Over 2.5 goals5/6
- 07.01.2026 Manchester City 1:1 Brighton and Hove Albion
- 31.08.2025 Brighton and Hove Albion 2:1 Manchester City
- 15.03.2025 Manchester City 2:2 Brighton and Hove Albion
- 09.11.2024 Brighton and Hove Albion 2:1 Manchester City
- 25.04.2024 Brighton and Hove Albion 0:4 Manchester City
- 21.10.2023 Manchester City 2:1 Brighton and Hove Albion
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W2 | was 4.55 → now 4.87 |
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