Liverpool — Arsenal: Win probabilities, 01.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
31.1%
Home win
Liverpool
X
26.8%
Draw
W2
42.1%
Away win
Arsenal
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1273.2%
Both teams to score
Yes56.4%
Totals 2.5
Over52.1%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 57.9% |
| 12 | 73.2% | |
| X2 | 68.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.4% / 43.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.0% / 23.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.1% / 47.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.9% / 70.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.6% / 85.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.2% / 93.8% |
Goal distribution model
Liverpool × Arsenal
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
7.1%
0:1
8.7%
0:2
7.1%
0:3
3.6%
0:4
1.3%
0:5
0.4%
1
1:0
7.2%
1:1
12.7%
1:2
9.0%
1:3
4.5%
1:4
1.7%
1:5
0.5%
2
2:0
5.0%
2:1
7.5%
2:2
5.7%
2:3
2.8%
2:4
1.1%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
2.1%
3:1
3.2%
3:2
2.4%
3:3
1.2%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
0.7%
4:1
1.0%
4:2
0.7%
4:3
0.4%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.3%
5:2
0.2%
5:3
0.1%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.7%
1:29.0%
0:18.7%
2:17.5%
1:07.2%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.11.2026
Liverpool
4th place · 15 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Brighton 2:0
- 17.10.2026 away Brentford 2:1
- 11.10.2026 home Man City 0:3
- 20.09.2026 away Bournemouth 1:0
- 12.09.2026 home Fulham 0:0
Arsenal
2nd place · 21 pts after 8Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Everton 2:0
- 18.10.2026 away Nott'm Forest 1:0
- 10.10.2026 home Leeds 2:1
- 19.09.2026 away Brighton 0:3
- 12.09.2026 away Sunderland 2:0
This season: Liverpool at home vs Arsenal away
| Metric | Liverpool · at home | Arsenal · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| W–D–L | 1–2–1 | 3–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| xG for per match | 1.29 | 1.43 |
| xG against per match | 1.40 | 1.08 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.25 | 2.50 |
| Corners per match | 4.25 | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Liverpool wins1
Draws4
Arsenal wins1
Goals per match2.50
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 08.01.2026 Arsenal 0:0 Liverpool
- 31.08.2025 Liverpool 1:0 Arsenal
- 11.05.2025 Liverpool 2:2 Arsenal
- 27.10.2024 Arsenal 2:2 Liverpool
- 04.02.2024 Arsenal 3:1 Liverpool
- 23.12.2023 Liverpool 1:1 Arsenal
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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