New York Red Bulls — Saint Louis City SC: Win probabilities, 26.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 47.2% |
| 12 | 78.7% | |
| X2 | 74.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.6% / 31.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.0% / 3.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.1% / 11.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 70.4% / 29.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 49.3% / 50.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.1% / 69.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.1% / 83.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 3.40 → now 3.60 |
| X | was 4.20 → now 4.33 |
| W2 | was 1.91 → now 1.83 |
Match preview
New York Red Bulls host Saint Louis City SC in an MLS meeting on 26 September 2026. The assessment gives Saint Louis City SC a slight but well-supported edge, with the visitors favoured to avoid defeat. The signal points towards an X2 outcome, so the most likely reading is a competitive match in which Saint Louis City SC have the stronger overall result profile without being expected to dominate.
Goals are also expected to be a prominent feature. The outlook is for a high-scoring game, with both New York Red Bulls and Saint Louis City SC likely to find the net. The listed scorelines—1:2, 1:1 and 2:2—suggest a narrow margin or a draw rather than a one-sided contest. New York Red Bulls should remain capable of contributing to the score, while Saint Louis City SC carry the clearer attacking and results edge in the forecast.
What matters before kick-off
Match postponed due to weather
The MLS fixture between New York Red Bulls and St. Louis CITY SC scheduled for September 26, 2026, was postponed due to inclement weather. The match has been rescheduled for Wednesday, September 30.
First competitive meeting
The match between New York Red Bulls and St. Louis CITY SC marks the first-ever competitive meeting between the two clubs.
St. Louis CITY SC unbeaten streak
St. Louis CITY SC enter the matchup on an 18-game unbeaten run across all competitions, including 16 matches in MLS, following a 3-1 win over Toronto FC.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.