New York Red Bulls — Charlotte FC: Win probabilities, 25.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.5% |
| 12 | 76.1% | |
| X2 | 55.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.8% / 31.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.4% / 12.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.9% / 32.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.4% / 53.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.5% / 72.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.3% / 85.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.07.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.07.2026 away Philadelphia Union 1:3
- 24.05.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 2:1
- 17.05.2026 home New York City 1:1
- 14.05.2026 home Columbus Crew 3:2
- 09.05.2026 away Chicago Fire 3:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.07.2026 home Atlanta Utd 2:2
- 24.05.2026 home New England Revolution 1:0
- 17.05.2026 home Toronto FC 3:1
- 14.05.2026 home New York City 0:1
- 10.05.2026 home FC Cincinnati 2:2
This season: New York Red Bulls at home vs Charlotte FC away
| Metric | New York Red Bulls · at home | Charlotte FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 6 |
| W–D–L | 3–2–2 | 1–1–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.86 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 2.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 21.03.2026 Charlotte FC 6:1 New York Red Bulls
- 25.08.2025 Charlotte FC 1:0 New York Red Bulls
- 29.05.2025 New York Red Bulls 4:2 Charlotte FC
- 25.08.2024 Charlotte FC 1:1 New York Red Bulls
- 30.05.2024 New York Red Bulls 3:1 Charlotte FC
- 26.10.2023 New York Red Bulls 5:2 Charlotte FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
New York Red Bulls and Charlotte FC appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment gives the hosts no decisive advantage, while Charlotte FC have a realistic path to competing on equal terms. With only moderate confidence in the overall outlook, the match could be shaped by small tactical details and how effectively each side manages transitions.
The scoring profile points toward an open contest, with both New York Red Bulls and Charlotte FC likely to find the net. That suggests a game in which neither team can rely solely on defensive control, particularly if an early goal changes the tempo. The most plausible scorelines include a draw or a narrow victory for either side, keeping the result difficult to separate before kickoff. Overall, this looks like a balanced MLS fixture with attacking moments expected at both ends.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.