New York Red Bulls — Charlotte FC: Win probabilities, 25.07.2026
Result
We predicted: BTTS · Verdict: Miss
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.5% |
| 12 | 76.1% | |
| X2 | 55.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.8% / 31.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.4% / 12.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.9% / 32.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.4% / 53.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.5% / 72.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.3% / 85.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
New York Red Bulls and Charlotte FC appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment gives the hosts no decisive advantage, while Charlotte FC have a realistic path to competing on equal terms. With only moderate confidence in the overall outlook, the match could be shaped by small tactical details and how effectively each side manages transitions.
The scoring profile points toward an open contest, with both New York Red Bulls and Charlotte FC likely to find the net. That suggests a game in which neither team can rely solely on defensive control, particularly if an early goal changes the tempo. The most plausible scorelines include a draw or a narrow victory for either side, keeping the result difficult to separate before kickoff. Overall, this looks like a balanced MLS fixture with attacking moments expected at both ends.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.