New York City FC — Toronto FC: Win probabilities, 31.07.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.8% |
| 12 | 77.0% | |
| X2 | 41.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.3% / 48.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.8% / 23.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.6% / 47.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.4% / 69.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.9% / 85.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
New York City FC have a slight edge over Toronto FC in this MLS matchup, although the low confidence level points to a contest with limited separation between the teams. The home side is marginally better positioned, but the assessment does not suggest a decisive advantage. Toronto FC remain capable of keeping the game close, particularly if they can limit New York City FC’s opportunities and maintain a disciplined shape.
The scoring outlook is medium, with the match potentially producing a controlled game rather than an open exchange from the start. Whether both teams find the net is finely balanced, so neither a clean sheet nor goals at both ends should be treated as the clear expectation. Overall, New York City FC appear slightly more likely to control the result, but the narrow margin leaves a draw or a closely fought Toronto FC performance within the range of plausible outcomes.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.