New York City FC — Toronto FC: Win probabilities, 31.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.0% |
| 12 | 77.7% | |
| X2 | 41.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.9% / 42.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.2% / 17.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.0% / 40.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 37.7% / 62.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.3% / 79.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.5% / 90.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.07.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 home Chicago Fire 3:1
- 23.07.2026 away Columbus Crew 2:1
- 24.05.2026 away Nashville SC 1:2
- 17.05.2026 away New York Red Bulls 1:1
- 14.05.2026 away Charlotte 1:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 away DC United 1:2
- 23.07.2026 away New England Revolution 0:0
- 17.07.2026 away CF Montreal 0:0
- 24.05.2026 away Chicago Fire 1:2
- 17.05.2026 away Charlotte 1:3
This season: New York City FC at home vs Toronto FC away
| Metric | New York City FC · at home | Toronto FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 8 |
| W–D–L | 4–2–3 | 1–2–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.44 | 0.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.56 | 1.63 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 63% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 04.07.2025 New York City FC 3:1 Toronto FC
- 26.04.2025 Toronto FC 0:1 New York City FC
- 12.05.2024 Toronto FC 2:3 New York City FC
- 16.03.2024 New York City FC 2:1 Toronto FC
- 24.09.2023 New York City FC 3:0 Toronto FC
- 30.04.2023 Toronto FC 1:0 New York City FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
New York City FC have a slight edge over Toronto FC in this MLS meeting, although the low confidence level points to a closely balanced contest rather than a strong pre-match separation. The available assessment leans toward the hosts, but it does not indicate a dominant advantage. That makes the home side the marginally more attractive outcome while leaving considerable room for a draw.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams scoring assessed as an even possibility. That combination suggests a game that could develop in several directions: New York City FC may take control through home advantage, while Toronto FC remain capable of contributing to an open contest. The overall picture is therefore one of a narrow home lean, with the most credible scenarios including a tight win or a level result.
What matters before kick-off
NYCFC facing ten absences against Toronto FC
Head Coach Pascal Jansen will be missing ten players for the match against Toronto FC. The list of unavailable players includes forward Alonso Martínez, Kevin O'Toole, Keaton Parks, Kai Trewin, Aiden O'Neill, and Maxi Moralez.
Toronto FC on extended road trip
Toronto FC arrive at Yankee Stadium in the middle of a stretch of six consecutive away fixtures in MLS regular season play.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.