New York City FC — Nashville SC: Win probabilities, 04.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 57.4% |
| 12 | 74.0% | |
| X2 | 68.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.6% / 40.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.8% / 20.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.1% / 43.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.8% / 66.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.3% / 82.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.7% / 92.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 04.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 away Toronto FC 1:1
- 23.08.2026 away New England Revolution 1:1
- 20.08.2026 away FC Cincinnati 1:2
- 16.08.2026 home Philadelphia Union 2:3
- 01.08.2026 home Toronto FC 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.08.2026 home FC Cincinnati 4:0
- 23.08.2026 home Columbus Crew 3:2
- 20.08.2026 away New York Red Bulls 1:0
- 16.08.2026 home Inter Miami 4:1
- 02.08.2026 away DC United 2:2
This season: New York City FC at home vs Nashville SC away
| Metric | New York City FC · at home | Nashville SC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 4–3–4 | 5–3–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.27 | 1.10 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.64 | 0.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 20% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 24.05.2026 Nashville SC 2:1 New York City FC
- 17.08.2025 New York City FC 2:1 Nashville SC
- 31.05.2025 Nashville SC 2:2 New York City FC
- 06.10.2024 New York City FC 3:1 Nashville SC
- 23.06.2024 Nashville SC 1:0 New York City FC
- 16.04.2023 New York City FC 2:1 Nashville SC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
New York City FC and Nashville SC appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting, with only a moderate basis for separating the two sides. The overall expectation is for a medium-scoring contest in which both teams are likely to find the net, suggesting an open but relatively balanced game rather than a one-sided affair.
The available outlook gives Nashville SC a slight edge in the result market, while a draw also fits the evenly matched assessment. Scorelines such as 1:1, 1:2 and 0:1 reflect a match that could remain close throughout, with small details likely to shape the final outcome. New York City FC should have opportunities at home, but Nashville SC may be marginally better placed to avoid defeat.
What matters before kick-off
New York City FC squad absences
New York City FC head coach Pascal Jansen will be without seven injured players for the match against Nashville SC. Among those sidelined are midfielder Keaton Parks, along with Maxi Moralez, Hannes Wolf, Talles Magno, Drew Baiera, Arnau Farnós, and Kai Trewin.
Nashville SC player availability
According to the official MLS player status report ahead of the fixture, forward Warren Madrigal is the lone player listed as out for Nashville SC due to a lower body injury.
Recent form of both sides
Nashville SC enters the match on a four-game MLS winning streak, most recently defeating FC Cincinnati 4-0 at home. Meanwhile, New York City FC is winless in five matches, having tied 1-1 with Toronto FC in their last outing.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.