New York City FC — Nashville SC: Win probabilities, 04.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 57.4% |
| 12 | 74.0% | |
| X2 | 68.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.6% / 40.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.9% / 6.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.8% / 20.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.1% / 43.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.8% / 66.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.3% / 82.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.7% / 92.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
New York City FC and Nashville SC appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting, with only a moderate basis for separating the two sides. The overall expectation is for a medium-scoring contest in which both teams are likely to find the net, suggesting an open but relatively balanced game rather than a one-sided affair.
The available outlook gives Nashville SC a slight edge in the result market, while a draw also fits the evenly matched assessment. Scorelines such as 1:1, 1:2 and 0:1 reflect a match that could remain close throughout, with small details likely to shape the final outcome. New York City FC should have opportunities at home, but Nashville SC may be marginally better placed to avoid defeat.
What matters before kick-off
New York City FC squad absences
New York City FC head coach Pascal Jansen will be without seven injured players for the match against Nashville SC. Among those sidelined are midfielder Keaton Parks, along with Maxi Moralez, Hannes Wolf, Talles Magno, Drew Baiera, Arnau Farnós, and Kai Trewin.
Nashville SC player availability
According to the official MLS player status report ahead of the fixture, forward Warren Madrigal is the lone player listed as out for Nashville SC due to a lower body injury.
Recent form of both sides
Nashville SC enters the match on a four-game MLS winning streak, most recently defeating FC Cincinnati 4-0 at home. Meanwhile, New York City FC is winless in five matches, having tied 1-1 with Toronto FC in their last outing.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.