New York City FC — CF Montreal: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
60.9%
Home win
New York City FC
X
21.6%
Draw
W2
17.5%
Away win
CF Montreal
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X82.5%
Both teams to score
Yes59.1%
Totals 2.5
Over62.5%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.5% |
| 12 | 78.4% | |
| X2 | 39.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.1% / 40.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.3% / 4.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.0% / 16.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.5% / 37.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.3% / 59.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.4% / 77.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.8% / 89.2% |
Goal distribution model
New York City FC × CF Montreal
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.7%
0:1
3.5%
0:2
2.3%
0:3
0.8%
0:4
0.2%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
7.8%
1:1
10.0%
1:2
5.0%
1:3
1.8%
1:4
0.5%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
9.1%
2:1
9.9%
2:2
5.3%
2:3
1.9%
2:4
0.5%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
6.5%
3:1
7.1%
3:2
3.8%
3:3
1.4%
3:4
0.4%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
3.5%
4:1
3.8%
4:2
2.0%
4:3
0.7%
4:4
0.2%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
1.5%
5:1
1.6%
5:2
0.9%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.0%
2:19.9%
2:09.1%
1:07.8%
3:17.1%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Orlando City 2:2
- 18.10.2026 home Los Angeles FC 1:1
- 15.10.2026 away Inter Miami 0:2
- 10.10.2026 away Chicago Fire 1:2
- 27.09.2026 away Atlanta Utd 2:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Nashville SC 0:2
- 18.10.2026 away Seattle Sounders 1:1
- 15.10.2026 home Atlanta Utd 0:3
- 10.10.2026 away Toronto FC 1:2
- 27.09.2026 home FC Cincinnati 3:1
This season: New York City FC at home vs CF Montreal away
| Metric | New York City FC · at home | CF Montreal · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 4–5–6 | 2–2–11 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.80 | 1.13 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.47 | 2.60 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 73% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 53% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
New York City FC wins2
Draws0
CF Montreal wins4
Goals per match1.50
Both teams scored0/6
Over 2.5 goals0/6
- 25.04.2026 CF Montreal 1:0 New York City FC
- 29.06.2025 CF Montreal 1:0 New York City FC
- 11.05.2025 New York City FC 0:1 CF Montreal
- 19.10.2024 CF Montreal 2:0 New York City FC
- 04.07.2024 New York City FC 2:0 CF Montreal
- 31.08.2023 New York City FC 2:0 CF Montreal
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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