FC Cincinnati — Philadelphia Union: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
29.3%
Home win
FC Cincinnati
X
22.6%
Draw
W2
48.1%
Away win
Philadelphia Union
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1277.4%
Both teams to score
Yes75.5%
Totals 2.5
Over76.5%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 51.9% |
| 12 | 77.4% | |
| X2 | 70.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 75.5% / 24.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.9% / 3.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 92.3% / 7.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 76.5% / 23.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 57.1% / 42.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 37.6% / 62.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 21.8% / 78.2% |
Goal distribution model
FC Cincinnati × Philadelphia Union
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.1%
0:1
2.8%
0:2
4.6%
0:3
3.4%
0:4
1.9%
0:5
0.9%
1
1:0
1.9%
1:1
8.4%
1:2
8.1%
1:3
6.1%
1:4
3.4%
1:5
1.5%
2
2:0
2.8%
2:1
6.3%
2:2
7.1%
2:3
5.3%
2:4
3.0%
2:5
1.4%
3
3:0
1.6%
3:1
3.7%
3:2
4.2%
3:3
3.1%
3:4
1.8%
3:5
0.8%
4
4:0
0.7%
4:1
1.6%
4:2
1.8%
4:3
1.4%
4:4
0.8%
4:5
0.4%
5
5:0
0.3%
5:1
0.6%
5:2
0.7%
5:3
0.5%
5:4
0.3%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:18.4%
1:28.1%
2:27.1%
2:16.3%
1:36.1%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away DC United 2:0
- 22.10.2026 home DC United 2:1
- 18.10.2026 home Columbus Crew 0:2
- 15.10.2026 home New England Revolution 2:3
- 11.10.2026 away Atlanta Utd 3:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home New England Revolution 1:2
- 17.10.2026 home Charlotte 2:2
- 15.10.2026 away Chicago Fire 3:1
- 11.10.2026 home Real Salt Lake 2:1
- 27.09.2026 home Orlando City 4:2
This season: FC Cincinnati at home vs Philadelphia Union away
| Metric | FC Cincinnati · at home | Philadelphia Union · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 8–3–4 | 6–2–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.53 | 2.27 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 2.13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 80% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
FC Cincinnati wins3
Draws0
Philadelphia Union wins3
Goals per match3.67
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 10.09.2026 Philadelphia Union 5:0 FC Cincinnati
- 31.08.2025 FC Cincinnati 0:1 Philadelphia Union
- 02.03.2025 Philadelphia Union 4:1 FC Cincinnati
- 19.10.2024 Philadelphia Union 1:2 FC Cincinnati
- 20.06.2024 FC Cincinnati 4:3 Philadelphia Union
- 26.11.2023 FC Cincinnati 1:0 Philadelphia Union
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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