New England Revolution — Orlando City SC: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.8% |
| 12 | 79.5% | |
| X2 | 43.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.6% / 29.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.3% / 2.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.1% / 9.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 73.7% / 26.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 53.5% / 46.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 34.0% / 66.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 19.0% / 81.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| X | was 4.33 → now 4.50 |
Match preview
New England Revolution have a slight edge over Orlando City SC in this MLS meeting, although the moderate confidence level points to a competitive contest rather than a clear mismatch. The available assessment leans toward the home side, but it also indicates that Orlando City SC should remain capable of creating opportunities and staying involved throughout the match.
The main expectation is an open, high-scoring game in which both teams are likely to score. That outlook makes the balance between New England Revolution's home advantage and Orlando City SC's attacking threat particularly important. A narrow home win is one possible direction, but a draw also fits the broader profile of an evenly contested match. The key analytical signal is therefore not a dominant performance from either side, but a game with chances at both ends and limited separation between the teams.
What matters before kick-off
New England Revolution return to home turf
The New England Revolution return to Gillette Stadium for the first time since August 23 following a four-game MLS away stretch.
Orlando City return to league play after cup duty
Orlando City return to MLS action after competing in the U.S. Open Cup semifinals against Columbus Crew on Wednesday.
Martín Ojeda approaches Orlando City club records
Orlando City's Martín Ojeda has scored 45 goals for the club across all competitions, putting him two goals behind Facundo Torres' club record of 47.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.