New England Revolution — New York City FC: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 68.6% |
| 12 | 74.9% | |
| X2 | 56.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 61.0% / 39.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.1% / 18.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 58.3% / 41.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 35.9% / 64.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.9% / 81.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.7% / 91.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 away DC United 3:0
- 16.08.2026 away Toronto FC 1:2
- 08.08.2026 home Houston Dynamo 0:2
- 02.08.2026 away CF Montreal 2:2
- 26.07.2026 home Atlanta Utd 4:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 away FC Cincinnati 1:2
- 16.08.2026 home Philadelphia Union 2:3
- 01.08.2026 home Toronto FC 1:1
- 26.07.2026 home Chicago Fire 3:1
- 23.07.2026 away Columbus Crew 2:1
This season: New England Revolution at home vs New York City FC away
| Metric | New England Revolution · at home | New York City FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 8–1–2 | 3–2–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.91 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.91 | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 44% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 20.04.2025 New England Revolution 2:0 New York City FC
- 15.03.2025 New York City FC 2:1 New England Revolution
- 26.05.2024 New England Revolution 0:1 New York City FC
- 14.04.2024 New York City FC 2:0 New England Revolution
- 03.06.2023 New York City FC 0:0 New England Revolution
- 02.04.2023 New England Revolution 1:1 New York City FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
New England Revolution have a slight edge over New York City FC in this MLS matchup, although the moderate confidence level points to a fairly balanced contest rather than a clear home advantage. The available outlook supports the hosts avoiding defeat, while New York City FC remain capable of making the match competitive and influencing the result.
The game is expected to be medium-scoring, with both teams likely to score. That suggests an open enough encounter for chances at both ends, but not necessarily a consistently high-tempo affair. New England Revolution may have the stronger overall position, yet the range of likely outcomes includes a draw and a narrow result for either side. The central expectation is therefore a close match in which the hosts hold a marginal advantage, while New York City FC have credible opportunities to take something from the game.
What matters before kick-off
Suspension for New England Revolution
New England Revolution midfielder Brooklyn Raines is suspended for the match against New York City FC due to yellow card accumulation.
Recent result for New England Revolution
New England Revolution enter the match following a 3-0 victory against D.C. United, where Alhassan Yusuf scored a hat-trick.
Recent result for New York City FC
New York City FC suffered a 2-1 away loss against FC Cincinnati in their previous MLS match.
Jack Harrison faces former club
New England Revolution winger Jack Harrison plays against his former MLS club, New York City FC, for the first time.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.