Atlanta United FC — Sporting Kansas City: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.6% |
| 12 | 77.5% | |
| X2 | 42.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.9% / 36.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.3% / 13.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.9% / 34.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.0% / 56.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.4% / 74.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.8% / 87.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 away Minnesota United 2:1
- 16.08.2026 home New York Red Bulls 2:1
- 02.08.2026 away Philadelphia Union 2:3
- 26.07.2026 away New England Revolution 1:4
- 23.07.2026 away Charlotte 2:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 home St. Louis City 1:1
- 16.08.2026 away Colorado Rapids 0:2
- 02.08.2026 home Houston Dynamo 0:2
- 26.07.2026 away Los Angeles FC 0:4
- 23.07.2026 home Minnesota United 2:1
This season: Atlanta United FC at home vs Sporting Kansas City away
| Metric | Atlanta United FC · at home | Sporting Kansas City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 3–1–5 | 2–0–8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.44 | 0.70 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.67 | 3.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 78% | 40% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 27.02.2022 Atlanta United FC 3:1 Sporting Kansas City
- 06.05.2019 Sporting Kansas City 0:3 Atlanta United FC
- 10.05.2018 Atlanta United FC 0:2 Sporting Kansas City
- 07.08.2017 Sporting Kansas City 1:1 Atlanta United FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Atlanta United FC hold a slight edge over Sporting Kansas City in this MLS meeting, although the moderate confidence suggests a competitive contest rather than a one-sided affair. The outlook points toward an open match, with attacking play likely to be more prominent than defensive caution. Atlanta United FC may have the stronger overall position, but Sporting Kansas City should have opportunities to create pressure and contribute to the game.
Both teams are likely to score, making the balance between the sides difficult to define for long periods. A 1:1 draw is one plausible scenario, while a narrow 2:1 win for Atlanta United FC also fits the assessment. The possibility of a 2:0 home victory remains, but the broader expectation is for Sporting Kansas City to remain involved in the contest. The main signal is therefore a high-scoring game with goals at both ends and only a slight advantage for Atlanta United FC.
What matters before kick-off
First MLS meeting in four and a half years
Sporting Kansas City and Atlanta United are playing their first official MLS fixture against each other since the opening weekend of the 2022 season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.