New England Revolution — Houston Dynamo: Win probabilities, 08.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 67.8% |
| 12 | 73.1% | |
| X2 | 59.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.8% / 43.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.2% / 22.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.2% / 69.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.8% / 85.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
New England Revolution and Houston Dynamo meet in an MLS contest that looks evenly matched. Neither side has a clear overall advantage in the available assessment, so the match may be shaped by small differences in execution rather than a dominant tactical profile. New England Revolution will have home advantage, while Houston Dynamo remain close enough in the evaluation to make this a balanced contest.
A medium-scoring game appears more likely than an exceptionally open or defensive encounter. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, leaving several plausible paths through the match. The most representative scorelines are 1-1, 2-1, and 1-0, reflecting a fixture where the hosts have a slight positional edge but no decisive separation. The overall expectation is therefore for a competitive match, with a draw or a narrow New England Revolution result among the main possibilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.