Colorado Rapids — Austin FC: Win probabilities, 02.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.6% |
| 12 | 75.7% | |
| X2 | 44.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.7% / 44.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.5% / 20.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.6% / 44.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 33.2% / 66.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.9% / 83.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.5% / 92.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Colorado Rapids have a slight edge over Austin FC in this MLS matchup, but the low confidence level points to a contest without a decisive pre-match separation. The available assessment favors the home side, though a draw remains a credible possibility, making the result difficult to call with certainty.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with 1:1, 2:1 and 2:0 among the likely scorelines. That range suggests Colorado Rapids may have enough attacking threat to find a winning margin, while Austin FC remain capable of contributing to a close contest. Both teams scoring is considered a coin flip, so the match could develop either as a balanced exchange with goals at both ends or as a more controlled home performance. Overall, the profile leans toward Colorado Rapids, but only narrowly.
What matters before kick-off
Holding's red card in previous match
Colorado Rapids defender Rob Holding received an early red card in the 12th minute of their previous 1-0 away loss to St. Louis CITY SC.
Colorado Rapids begin homestand
The match against Austin FC kicks off a three-game homestand at DICK'S Sporting Goods Park for the Colorado Rapids.
Austin FC recent form
Austin FC headed into this fixture following a 3-0 away loss to Houston Dynamo FC, which came after a 3-1 home victory over Seattle Sounders FC.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.