Colorado Rapids — Austin FC: Win probabilities, 02.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.2% |
| 12 | 76.3% | |
| X2 | 43.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.5% / 43.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.1% / 5.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.5% / 19.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.1% / 42.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.7% / 65.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.0% / 82.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.1% / 91.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Colorado Rapids hold a slight edge over Austin FC in this MLS matchup, although the low confidence attached to that assessment points to a relatively open contest. The home advantage gives Colorado Rapids a modestly stronger starting position, but the gap between the teams is not substantial enough to make the outcome look predictable. Austin FC remain well placed to challenge for a result, particularly if they can keep the game balanced in its early stages.
The scoring outlook is medium, with the overall assessment leaning toward a match that could produce several meaningful chances. Whether both teams score is difficult to separate, making that aspect of the game essentially even. A draw remains a credible possibility, while a narrow Colorado Rapids victory also fits the broader picture. Austin FC should therefore be expected to remain competitive rather than simply defend, creating a match where the balance may depend on efficiency in the final third.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.