New England Revolution — Houston Dynamo: Win probabilities, 08.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 67.8% |
| 12 | 73.1% | |
| X2 | 59.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.8% / 43.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.9% / 7.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.2% / 22.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.2% / 69.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.8% / 85.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
New England Revolution and Houston Dynamo appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting on 8 August. The available assessment gives the hosts no clear overall superiority, while the moderate confidence level suggests that the balance between the teams should be treated with some caution. The expected profile is medium-scoring rather than tightly defensive, leaving room for an open contest across the match.
Both teams scoring is described as a coin flip, so neither outcome should be treated as the central expectation. The strongest scoreline indication is a 1:1 draw, with 2:1 and 1:0 also among the plausible scenarios. Overall, the signal leans toward New England Revolution avoiding defeat, but the evenly matched assessment points to a narrow margin between the sides rather than a decisive advantage.
What matters before kick-off
Rescheduled MLS fixture
The match at Gillette Stadium was originally scheduled for March 7, but was postponed and rescheduled to August 8 due to field-related infrastructure issues.
Jack Harrison eligible for debut
New England Revolution winger Jack Harrison received his U.S. Green Card ahead of the match and became eligible to make his debut against Houston Dynamo FC.
Houston Dynamo's unbeaten run
Houston Dynamo FC enter the match on a five-game unbeaten streak in MLS play, having secured two consecutive shutout victories prior to their trip to Foxborough.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.