NEC Nijmegen — Excelsior Rotterdam: Win probabilities, 08.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.6% |
| 12 | 77.9% | |
| X2 | 41.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.5% / 34.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.9% / 4.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.8% / 12.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.3% / 31.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.8% / 53.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.9% / 72.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.5% / 85.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
NEC Nijmegen have a slight edge over Excelsior Rotterdam in this Eredivisie meeting, although the moderate confidence suggests a contest with limited separation between the teams. The overall profile points towards an open match, with attacking moments expected at both ends rather than a cautious, low-event encounter.
Both teams are likely to score, making the balance of the game potentially depend on which side manages its defensive phases more effectively. NEC Nijmegen may have the stronger overall position, but Excelsior Rotterdam remain capable of contributing to the scoreline and keeping the match competitive. The main signal is therefore a high-scoring game with opportunities for both attacks, while a draw remains a plausible outcome alongside a narrow home victory.
What matters before kick-off
Match rescheduled due to European ties
The Eredivisie fixture between NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior Rotterdam was rescheduled by the KNVB to provide NEC extra rest around their UEFA Champions League play-off ties against Bodø/Glimt.
Strong start for Excelsior
Excelsior Rotterdam enter this rescheduled fixture having won three of their opening four Eredivisie games under manager Ruben den Uil. Avoiding defeat against NEC Nijmegen would allow them to equal the best five-game start in club history.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.