NEC Nijmegen — Excelsior Rotterdam: Win probabilities, 08.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.6% |
| 12 | 77.9% | |
| X2 | 41.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.5% / 34.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.9% / 4.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.8% / 12.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.3% / 31.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.8% / 53.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.9% / 72.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.5% / 85.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 08.09.2026
NEC Nijmegen
9th place · 7 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Feyenoord 1:3
- 29.08.2026 away Zwolle 3:1
- 22.08.2026 home Excelsior 0:0
- 15.08.2026 away Willem II 4:1
- 08.08.2026 home Telstar 1:2
Excelsior Rotterdam
4th place · 10 pts after 5Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 away Willem II 3:0
- 29.08.2026 home Sparta Rotterdam 2:1
- 22.08.2026 away Nijmegen 0:0
- 15.08.2026 home PSV Eindhoven 1:2
- 07.08.2026 away Cambuur 4:0
This season: NEC Nijmegen at home vs Excelsior Rotterdam away
| Metric | NEC Nijmegen · at home | Excelsior Rotterdam · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 0–1–2 | 2–1–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.67 | 2.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.67 | 0.00 |
| xG for per match | 1.56 | 2.23 |
| xG against per match | 1.51 | 0.79 |
| Shots on target per match | 3.00 | 7.50 |
| Corners per match | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 0% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 22.08.2026 NEC Nijmegen 0:0 Excelsior Rotterdam
- 04.04.2026 Excelsior Rotterdam 0:2 NEC Nijmegen
- 09.08.2025 NEC Nijmegen 5:0 Excelsior Rotterdam
- 06.05.2024 Excelsior Rotterdam 0:3 NEC Nijmegen
- 13.08.2023 NEC Nijmegen 3:4 Excelsior Rotterdam
- 19.02.2023 Excelsior Rotterdam 0:3 NEC Nijmegen
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
NEC Nijmegen have a slight edge over Excelsior Rotterdam in this Eredivisie meeting, although the moderate confidence suggests a contest with limited separation between the teams. The overall profile points towards an open match, with attacking moments expected at both ends rather than a cautious, low-event encounter.
Both teams are likely to score, making the balance of the game potentially depend on which side manages its defensive phases more effectively. NEC Nijmegen may have the stronger overall position, but Excelsior Rotterdam remain capable of contributing to the scoreline and keeping the match competitive. The main signal is therefore a high-scoring game with opportunities for both attacks, while a draw remains a plausible outcome alongside a narrow home victory.
What matters before kick-off
Match rescheduled due to European ties
The Eredivisie fixture between NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior Rotterdam was rescheduled by the KNVB to provide NEC extra rest around their UEFA Champions League play-off ties against Bodø/Glimt.
Strong start for Excelsior
Excelsior Rotterdam enter this rescheduled fixture having won three of their opening four Eredivisie games under manager Ruben den Uil. Avoiding defeat against NEC Nijmegen would allow them to equal the best five-game start in club history.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.