Nashville SC — Toronto FC: Win probabilities, 27.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.3% |
| 12 | 82.3% | |
| X2 | 28.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.2% / 42.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.5% / 12.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.2% / 31.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.7% / 53.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.8% / 72.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.4% / 85.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.42 → now 1.36 |
| W2 | was 7.00 → now 8.00 |
Match preview
Nashville SC go into this MLS meeting with the stronger overall assessment, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the advantage should be treated with some caution. Toronto FC remain capable of making the contest competitive, particularly in a match where the attacking outlook points toward several scoring opportunities. The qualitative signal favours a home win, but it does not remove the possibility of a close game.
The expected pattern is relatively open, with both Nashville SC and Toronto FC considered likely to score. That makes a narrow home success a plausible scenario, while a more controlled Nashville SC performance could also lead to a two-goal margin. The main projected scorelines are 2–1 and 2–0, with 1–1 representing the key alternative if Toronto FC can resist the home side’s edge. Overall, Nashville SC hold the clearer position, but the high-scoring profile leaves room for fluctuations during the match.
What matters before kick-off
Nashville SC missing players due to international duty
Nashville SC will be without starting goalkeeper Brian Schwake and four other players due to international duty, handing 38-year-old veteran goalkeeper Joe Willis his first MLS minutes of the season against Toronto FC.
Toronto FC depleted for trip to Nashville
Toronto FC will be without multiple key players for their trip to Nashville, with Djordje Mihailovic and Nelson Palacio sidelined by injuries and players like Richie Laryea and Benjamin Kuscevic away on international duty.
Nashville SC already secured playoff berth
Nashville SC clinched a 2026 MLS Cup Playoffs spot with a 3-0 victory against Chicago Fire. The league leaders have lost just three regular-season matches all year, one of which came against Toronto FC on September 9.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.