Nashville SC — New York Red Bulls: Win probabilities, 01.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
73.8%
Home win
Nashville SC
X
15.2%
Draw
W2
11.0%
Away win
New York Red Bulls
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X89.0%
Both teams to score
Yes63.7%
Totals 2.5
Over76.5%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.0% |
| 12 | 84.8% | |
| X2 | 26.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.7% / 36.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.8% / 2.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.4% / 8.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 76.5% / 23.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 57.0% / 43.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 37.5% / 62.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 21.8% / 78.2% |
Goal distribution model
Nashville SC × New York Red Bulls
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
2.2%
0:1
1.6%
0:2
1.1%
0:3
0.4%
0:4
0.1%
0:5
0.0%
1
1:0
4.8%
1:1
6.2%
1:2
3.2%
1:3
1.2%
1:4
0.3%
1:5
0.1%
2
2:0
7.6%
2:1
8.4%
2:2
4.7%
2:3
1.7%
2:4
0.5%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
7.4%
3:1
8.2%
3:2
4.5%
3:3
1.7%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
5.4%
4:1
6.0%
4:2
3.3%
4:3
1.2%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
3.1%
5:1
3.5%
5:2
1.9%
5:3
0.7%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
2:18.4%
3:18.2%
2:07.6%
3:07.4%
1:16.2%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away CF Montreal 2:0
- 18.10.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 1:1
- 15.10.2026 home Sporting Kansas City 4:0
- 11.10.2026 away Austin FC 4:1
- 27.09.2026 home Toronto FC 2:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Inter Miami 2:0
- 18.10.2026 home Toronto FC 0:2
- 15.10.2026 away DC United 1:2
- 11.10.2026 home San Diego FC 4:1
- 01.10.2026 home St. Louis City 0:3
This season: Nashville SC at home vs New York Red Bulls away
| Metric | Nashville SC · at home | New York Red Bulls · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 14–1–0 | 5–3–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 1.13 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Nashville SC wins2
Draws2
New York Red Bulls wins2
Goals per match1.17
Both teams scored1/6
Over 2.5 goals1/6
- 20.08.2026 New York Red Bulls 0:1 Nashville SC
- 15.05.2025 Nashville SC 2:1 New York Red Bulls
- 02.03.2025 New York Red Bulls 2:0 Nashville SC
- 16.06.2024 New York Red Bulls 0:0 Nashville SC
- 25.02.2024 Nashville SC 0:0 New York Red Bulls
- 21.10.2023 Nashville SC 0:1 New York Red Bulls
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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