Atlanta United FC — Toronto FC: Win probabilities, 01.11.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
50.8%
Home win
Atlanta United FC
X
22.6%
Draw
W2
26.5%
Away win
Toronto FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1277.4%
Both teams to score
Yes71.2%
Totals 2.5
Over72.2%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.5% |
| 12 | 77.4% | |
| X2 | 49.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 71.2% / 28.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.6% / 3.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.9% / 10.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 72.2% / 27.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 51.6% / 48.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 32.2% / 67.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.7% / 82.3% |
Goal distribution model
Atlanta United FC × Toronto FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.4%
0:1
2.6%
0:2
2.9%
0:3
1.5%
0:4
0.6%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
4.1%
1:1
9.1%
1:2
6.3%
1:3
3.3%
1:4
1.3%
1:5
0.4%
2
2:0
5.6%
2:1
8.8%
2:2
6.9%
2:3
3.6%
2:4
1.4%
2:5
0.4%
3
3:0
4.1%
3:1
6.4%
3:2
5.0%
3:3
2.6%
3:4
1.0%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
2.2%
4:1
3.5%
4:2
2.7%
4:3
1.4%
4:4
0.6%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
1.0%
5:1
1.5%
5:2
1.2%
5:3
0.6%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:19.1%
2:18.8%
2:26.9%
3:16.4%
1:26.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 01.11.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Chicago Fire 2:3
- 18.10.2026 home Inter Miami 1:3
- 15.10.2026 away CF Montreal 3:0
- 11.10.2026 home FC Cincinnati 1:3
- 27.09.2026 home New York City 2:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 away Columbus Crew 2:4
- 18.10.2026 away New York Red Bulls 2:0
- 15.10.2026 home Orlando City 3:3
- 10.10.2026 home CF Montreal 2:1
- 27.09.2026 away Nashville SC 0:2
This season: Atlanta United FC at home vs Toronto FC away
| Metric | Atlanta United FC · at home | Toronto FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 16 | 15 |
| W–D–L | 4–2–10 | 3–3–9 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.44 | 0.93 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 81% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 81% | 53% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Atlanta United FC wins2
Draws3
Toronto FC wins1
Goals per match2.33
Both teams scored4/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 25.04.2026 Toronto FC 1:2 Atlanta United FC
- 24.08.2025 Atlanta United FC 0:0 Toronto FC
- 13.07.2025 Toronto FC 1:1 Atlanta United FC
- 30.06.2024 Atlanta United FC 2:1 Toronto FC
- 23.03.2024 Toronto FC 2:0 Atlanta United FC
- 16.04.2023 Toronto FC 2:2 Atlanta United FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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