Nashville SC — Chicago Fire: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.1% |
| 12 | 77.9% | |
| X2 | 46.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.2% / 33.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.3% / 3.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.9% / 13.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.6% / 32.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.0% / 54.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.1% / 72.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.0% / 86.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Nashville SC have a slight but meaningful advantage over Chicago Fire in this MLS meeting. The assessment points toward a competitive match rather than a one-sided contest, with the hosts better placed to control the overall outcome. The high confidence in the home edge suggests Nashville SC should be viewed as the stronger side, although the margin between the teams is not expected to be decisive.
The scoring outlook is notably open, with both teams likely to find the net. That combination makes a draw a realistic part of the match picture, while a narrow Nashville SC victory also fits the available signals. Chicago Fire should remain involved if they can take advantage of the spaces created by an attacking game, but Nashville SC appear more likely to secure at least a positive result. The main expectation is therefore for an entertaining, high-scoring encounter in which the hosts hold the clearer advantage.
What matters before kick-off
Nashville SC's Shield lead
Nashville SC enter the match leading the Supporters' Shield standings with 54 points from 25 games and remain the only MLS side undefeated at home this season.
Nashville SC playoff spot at stake
A victory against Chicago Fire FC at GEODIS Park would allow Nashville SC to officially secure their place in the MLS playoffs.
Chicago Fire's streak ended
In their previous match, Chicago Fire FC suffered a 2-1 defeat against the New England Revolution, ending their seven-game unbeaten streak in MLS play.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.