Motherwell FC — St Mirren FC: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
52.9%
Home win
Motherwell FC
X
23.5%
Draw
W2
23.5%
Away win
St Mirren FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X76.5%
Both teams to score
Yes62.8%
Totals 2.5
Over62.9%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.5% |
| 12 | 76.5% | |
| X2 | 47.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.8% / 37.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.2% / 4.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.3% / 15.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.9% / 37.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.7% / 59.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.7% / 77.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
Goal distribution model
Motherwell FC × St Mirren FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.8%
0:1
4.1%
0:2
3.1%
0:3
1.3%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
6.8%
1:1
10.7%
1:2
6.2%
1:3
2.6%
1:4
0.8%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
7.6%
2:1
9.7%
2:2
6.1%
2:3
2.6%
2:4
0.8%
2:5
0.2%
3
3:0
5.0%
3:1
6.3%
3:2
4.0%
3:3
1.7%
3:4
0.5%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
2.5%
4:1
3.1%
4:2
2.0%
4:3
0.8%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
1.0%
5:1
1.2%
5:2
0.8%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.7%
2:19.7%
2:07.6%
1:06.8%
3:16.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
Motherwell FC
10th place · 9 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 home Hearts 0:2
- 17.10.2026 away Kilmarnock 2:3
- 11.10.2026 home Celtic 0:2
- 19.09.2026 away Dundee 1:2
- 15.09.2026 home Aberdeen 0:4
St Mirren FC
6th place · 14 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Dundee 2:1
- 17.10.2026 away Aberdeen 1:3
- 10.10.2026 away Hearts 0:5
- 19.09.2026 home Dundee United 0:3
- 09.09.2026 away Rangers 0:1
This season: Motherwell FC at home vs St Mirren FC away
| Metric | Motherwell FC · at home | St Mirren FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| W–D–L | 1–2–3 | 2–1–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| xG for per match | 1.22 | 1.10 |
| xG against per match | 1.09 | 1.80 |
| Shots on target per match | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| Corners per match | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 17% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Motherwell FC wins3
Draws3
St Mirren FC wins0
Goals per match3.00
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 30.08.2026 St Mirren FC 3:3 Motherwell FC
- 21.02.2026 St Mirren FC 0:5 Motherwell FC
- 03.01.2026 Motherwell FC 2:0 St Mirren FC
- 09.08.2025 St Mirren FC 0:0 Motherwell FC
- 15.03.2025 Motherwell FC 2:2 St Mirren FC
- 07.12.2024 St Mirren FC 0:1 Motherwell FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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