Dundee United — Heart of Midlothian FC: Win probabilities, 31.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
30.9%
Home win
Dundee United
X
24.9%
Draw
W2
44.2%
Away win
Heart of Midlothian FC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1275.1%
Both teams to score
Yes63.5%
Totals 2.5
Over61.4%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.8% |
| 12 | 75.1% | |
| X2 | 69.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.5% / 36.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.3% / 16.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.4% / 38.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.1% / 60.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.4% / 78.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.2% / 89.8% |
Goal distribution model
Dundee United × Heart of Midlothian FC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.0%
0:1
6.5%
0:2
6.4%
0:3
3.7%
0:4
1.6%
0:5
0.6%
1
1:0
5.2%
1:1
11.3%
1:2
9.1%
1:3
5.3%
1:4
2.3%
1:5
0.8%
2
2:0
4.3%
2:1
7.5%
2:2
6.5%
2:3
3.8%
2:4
1.6%
2:5
0.6%
3
3:0
2.0%
3:1
3.6%
3:2
3.1%
3:3
1.8%
3:4
0.8%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
0.7%
4:1
1.3%
4:2
1.1%
4:3
0.6%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.4%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.3%
1:29.1%
2:17.5%
0:16.5%
2:26.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 31.10.2026
Dundee United
4th place · 15 pts after 10Last 5 matches · latest first
- 24.10.2026 home Aberdeen 3:2
- 17.10.2026 away St Johnstone 1:1
- 10.10.2026 home Hibernian 1:0
- 19.09.2026 away St Mirren 3:0
- 05.09.2026 home Falkirk 1:1
Heart of Midlothian FC
3rd place · 20 pts after 11Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.10.2026 away Motherwell 2:0
- 18.10.2026 away Celtic 1:7
- 10.10.2026 home St Mirren 5:0
- 19.09.2026 away Kilmarnock 1:1
- 15.09.2026 away Falkirk 1:2
This season: Dundee United at home vs Heart of Midlothian FC away
| Metric | Dundee United · at home | Heart of Midlothian FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 7 |
| W–D–L | 2–2–1 | 2–2–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.20 | 1.29 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.20 | 1.86 |
| xG for per match | 1.67 | 1.40 |
| xG against per match | 1.26 | 2.02 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.20 | 4.33 |
| Corners per match | 7.20 | 5.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 71% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Dundee United wins1
Draws1
Heart of Midlothian FC wins4
Goals per match2.67
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 09.08.2026 Heart of Midlothian FC 4:0 Dundee United
- 31.01.2026 Dundee United 0:3 Heart of Midlothian FC
- 09.11.2025 Heart of Midlothian FC 1:1 Dundee United
- 10.08.2025 Dundee United 2:3 Heart of Midlothian FC
- 06.04.2025 Heart of Midlothian FC 0:1 Dundee United
- 05.01.2025 Dundee United 0:1 Heart of Midlothian FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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