Motherwell FC — Falkirk FC: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.5% |
| 12 | 75.2% | |
| X2 | 47.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.2% / 41.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.0% / 6.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.8% / 19.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.3% / 42.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.9% / 65.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.2% / 81.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.2% / 91.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.08.2026
Motherwell FC
2nd place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 away Hibernian 2:1
- 16.05.2026 away Hibernian 1:0
- 13.05.2026 home Celtic 2:3
- 09.05.2026 home Hearts 1:1
- 02.05.2026 away Falkirk 0:1
Falkirk FC
12th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.08.2026 home St Mirren 0:2
- 16.05.2026 home Rangers 2:5
- 13.05.2026 away Hearts 0:3
- 09.05.2026 home Hibernian 1:3
- 02.05.2026 home Motherwell 1:0
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
- 02.05.2026 Falkirk FC 1:0 Motherwell FC
- 04.04.2026 Motherwell FC 2:3 Falkirk FC
- 03.12.2025 Falkirk FC 0:0 Motherwell FC
- 18.10.2025 Motherwell FC 1:2 Falkirk FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Motherwell FC enter this Premiership meeting with a slight but credible edge over Falkirk FC. The assessment points towards a medium-scoring contest, with Motherwell FC better placed to control the outcome while Falkirk FC remain capable of making the match competitive. The hosts are clearly stronger in the overall outlook, although the margin between the sides is not so wide that a close game should be unexpected.
Both teams are likely to score, which gives the fixture an open enough profile without suggesting an especially high-scoring encounter. The most plausible scorelines include a draw as well as a narrow Motherwell FC victory, reflecting a balance between home advantage and Falkirk FC’s prospects in attack. Overall, the analysis favours Motherwell FC, with the safer reading being that they avoid defeat, while the visitors retain a realistic chance of contributing to the scoreline.
What matters before kick-off
Motherwell's recent results
Motherwell enter the fixture following a 1-1 draw against HJK Helsinki in the UEFA Conference League on 6 August 2026, which came after a 2-1 away win over Hibernian in their Premiership opener.
Head-to-head record last season
During the 2025/26 season, Motherwell failed to win any of their four league matches against Falkirk, registering one draw and three defeats.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.