Heart of Midlothian FC — Dundee United: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.2% |
| 12 | 77.4% | |
| X2 | 43.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 59.1% / 40.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.4% / 17.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.4% / 39.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.1% / 61.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.6% / 79.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.7% / 90.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.08.2026
Heart of Midlothian FC
10th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 01.08.2026 away Aberdeen 1:2
- 16.05.2026 away Celtic 1:3
- 13.05.2026 home Falkirk 3:0
- 09.05.2026 away Motherwell 1:1
- 04.05.2026 home Rangers 2:1
Dundee United
7th place · 1 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 31.07.2026 home Rangers 1:1
- 17.05.2026 away St Mirren 1:1
- 12.05.2026 home Livingston 0:0
- 09.05.2026 away Aberdeen 0:2
- 02.05.2026 away Kilmarnock 0:3
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 31.01.2026 Dundee United 0:3 Heart of Midlothian FC
- 09.11.2025 Heart of Midlothian FC 1:1 Dundee United
- 10.08.2025 Dundee United 2:3 Heart of Midlothian FC
- 06.04.2025 Heart of Midlothian FC 0:1 Dundee United
- 05.01.2025 Dundee United 0:1 Heart of Midlothian FC
- 01.09.2024 Heart of Midlothian FC 0:1 Dundee United
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Heart of Midlothian FC have a slight edge over Dundee United in this Premiership meeting, although the moderate confidence level suggests a competitive contest rather than a clearly one-sided match. The available assessment points towards the hosts having the stronger overall outlook, but Dundee United remain capable of making the game difficult and contributing to the result.
The match is expected to have an open scoring pattern, with both teams likely to find the net. That points to a game where attacking moments may outweigh defensive control, particularly if the early exchanges are played at a high tempo. The most prominent scoreline indications are 1:1 and 2:1, with 2:0 also among the possible outcomes. Overall, Heart of Midlothian FC hold the narrower advantage, while the broader expectation is for a high-scoring match rather than a tightly contained encounter.
What matters before kick-off
Heart of Midlothian recent results and congested schedule
Heart of Midlothian enter the match following a 2-1 defeat to Aberdeen in their Premiership opener and a heavy 6-1 loss against Benfica in Europa League qualifying.
Heart of Midlothian injury and suspension updates
Heart of Midlothian defender Stuart Findlay misses out through suspension following a red card against Aberdeen, while Craig Halkett and Stephen Kingsley are sidelined due to injury.
Dundee United squad availability boost
Dundee United manager Jim Goodwin confirmed that players who missed out on the 1-1 draw against Rangers as a precaution have returned to training and are available for selection.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.