Kilmarnock FC — Celtic Glasgow: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 25.2% |
| 12 | 84.1% | |
| X2 | 90.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.3% / 47.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.3% / 3.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.8% / 14.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.2% / 33.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.3% / 55.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.7% / 74.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.0% / 87.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.08.2026
Kilmarnock FC
9th place · 0 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 02.08.2026 away St Johnstone 3:4
- 17.05.2026 away Livingston 4:1
- 12.05.2026 home Dundee 3:1
- 09.05.2026 away St Mirren 3:0
- 02.05.2026 home Dundee United 3:0
Celtic Glasgow
4th place · 3 pts after 1Last 5 matches · latest first
- 03.08.2026 home Dundee 1:0
- 16.05.2026 home Hearts 3:1
- 13.05.2026 away Motherwell 3:2
- 10.05.2026 home Rangers 3:1
- 03.05.2026 away Hibernian 2:1
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 15.02.2026 Kilmarnock FC 2:3 Celtic Glasgow
- 09.11.2025 Celtic Glasgow 4:0 Kilmarnock FC
- 14.09.2025 Kilmarnock FC 1:2 Celtic Glasgow
- 12.04.2025 Celtic Glasgow 5:1 Kilmarnock FC
- 10.11.2024 Kilmarnock FC 0:2 Celtic Glasgow
- 04.08.2024 Celtic Glasgow 4:0 Kilmarnock FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Kilmarnock FC face a difficult assignment against Celtic Glasgow, with the available assessment giving the visitors a clear edge. The confidence in that reading is high, suggesting Celtic Glasgow should control more of the match and create the stronger attacking situations. Kilmarnock FC will need to remain organised without the ball and make good use of their opportunities when they arise.
The game is expected to have an open, high-scoring character rather than a tightly contained rhythm. However, whether both teams score is finely balanced, so Kilmarnock FC’s attacking contribution remains one of the main uncertainties. The most plausible scorelines point towards a Celtic Glasgow victory, with 0:2, 0:3 and 1:2 all fitting the overall outlook. Celtic Glasgow therefore appear better placed, while the home side’s prospects depend on resisting sustained pressure and taking advantage of any spaces left in transition.
What matters before kick-off
Season openers for both teams
Celtic opened their Premiership title defence with a 1-0 victory against Dundee, while Kilmarnock lost 4-3 to St Johnstone in their opening league fixture.
Head-to-head record
Celtic have won each of their last eight meetings with Kilmarnock across all competitions.
Celtic suspensions and injuries
Celtic defender Liam Scales misses out due to a domestic suspension, while forward Johnny Kenny remains sidelined with a knee injury.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.