Middlesbrough FC — Millwall FC: Win probabilities, 15.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 87.6% |
| 12 | 81.1% | |
| X2 | 31.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.4% / 43.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.4% / 14.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.0% / 35.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.0% / 57.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.6% / 75.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.09.2026
Middlesbrough FC
5th place · 13 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Norwich 4:3
- 05.09.2026 away QPR 1:0
- 02.09.2026 away Burnley 1:1
- 29.08.2026 home West Brom 3:1
- 22.08.2026 away Blackburn 1:2
Millwall FC
13th place · 9 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Blackburn 1:3
- 05.09.2026 home Bolton 4:0
- 02.09.2026 home Wrexham 0:3
- 29.08.2026 away Southampton 1:5
- 22.08.2026 home Norwich 3:0
This season: Middlesbrough FC at home vs Millwall FC away
| Metric | Middlesbrough FC · at home | Millwall FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–0 | 1–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.00 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| xG for per match | 2.25 | 2.05 |
| xG against per match | 1.20 | 1.65 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| Corners per match | 5.00 | 6.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 67% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 03.04.2026 Middlesbrough FC 1:2 Millwall FC
- 16.08.2025 Millwall FC 0:3 Middlesbrough FC
- 12.04.2025 Millwall FC 1:0 Middlesbrough FC
- 14.12.2024 Middlesbrough FC 1:0 Millwall FC
- 13.01.2024 Millwall FC 1:3 Middlesbrough FC
- 05.08.2023 Middlesbrough FC 0:1 Millwall FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Middlesbrough FC meet Millwall FC in the Championship on 15 September 2026, with the hosts holding a clear but only moderate edge in the assessment. The matchup points toward Middlesbrough FC having the stronger overall position, although the gap is not presented as decisive. Millwall FC remain capable of making the contest competitive, particularly if they can keep the game balanced during its early stages.
The scoring outlook is for an open, high-scoring match rather than a tightly controlled encounter. Whether both teams score is considered finely balanced, so the game could develop in more than one direction. The most prominent scorelines are 2:0 and 2:1 in favour of Middlesbrough FC, while 1:1 is also identified as a plausible outcome. Overall, the preview gives Middlesbrough FC the advantage, but the moderate confidence suggests that Millwall FC have a realistic opportunity to challenge that expectation.
What matters before kick-off
Middlesbrough's recent victory
In their previous Championship fixture on September 12, 2026, Middlesbrough secured a 4-3 victory over Norwich City at the Riverside Stadium.
Millwall's recent result
Millwall entered the fixture against Middlesbrough on the back of a 3-1 away defeat against Blackburn Rovers in the Championship.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.