Bristol City — Lincoln City: Win probabilities, 15.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.9% |
| 12 | 73.8% | |
| X2 | 48.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.1% / 48.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.0% / 8.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.3% / 25.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.6% / 51.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.8% / 73.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.5% / 87.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.0% / 95.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.09.2026
Bristol City
11th place · 10 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Southampton 1:4
- 05.09.2026 away Burnley 2:1
- 01.09.2026 away Preston 3:1
- 29.08.2026 home Portsmouth 2:1
- 22.08.2026 away Birmingham 2:2
Lincoln City
16th place · 8 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 away Preston 1:0
- 05.09.2026 home Southampton 1:1
- 01.09.2026 home Blackburn 0:0
- 29.08.2026 away Bolton 1:0
- 22.08.2026 home Portsmouth 1:3
This season: Bristol City at home vs Lincoln City away
| Metric | Bristol City · at home | Lincoln City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 2 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–1 | 2–0–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 0.67 |
| xG for per match | 0.57 | 0.77 |
| xG against per match | 2.39 | 1.48 |
| Shots on target per match | 1.50 | 2.33 |
| Corners per match | 4.50 | 3.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 33% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Bristol City meet Lincoln City in the Championship on 15 September 2026, with the hosts holding a slight edge in the pre-match assessment. The signal points towards Bristol City avoiding defeat, while the high confidence attached to that view suggests a stronger position for the home side without making the outcome certain. Lincoln City remain competitive in this assessment, so the match may be decided by narrow margins rather than a clear difference in quality.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with possible scorelines including 1-1, 1-0 and 2-0. That range reflects a contest where Bristol City could impose enough control to win by a small margin, but where Lincoln City have a realistic route to sharing the points. Both teams scoring is considered evenly balanced, making it difficult to identify a firm expectation on that specific market. Overall, Bristol City have the more favourable outlook, although a draw remains a credible result.
What matters before kick-off
Michael Skubala's Reunion
Bristol City manager Michael Skubala faces his former team Lincoln City, whom he led to promotion to the Championship last season.
Recent Team Results
Over the weekend, Bristol City saw their three-game winning streak end in a 4-1 loss at Southampton, while Lincoln City earned a 1-0 away win against Preston North End.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.