Bristol City — Watford FC: Win probabilities, 18.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.6% |
| 12 | 76.2% | |
| X2 | 45.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.3% / 42.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.2% / 5.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 80.5% / 19.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 57.2% / 42.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.8% / 65.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 18.1% / 81.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.2% / 91.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.09.2026
Bristol City
13th place · 10 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 15.09.2026 home Lincoln 0:1
- 12.09.2026 away Southampton 1:4
- 05.09.2026 away Burnley 2:1
- 01.09.2026 away Preston 3:1
- 29.08.2026 home Portsmouth 2:1
Watford FC
17th place · 8 pts after 7Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Stoke 1:2
- 08.09.2026 home Preston 2:1
- 05.09.2026 away West Brom 0:1
- 01.09.2026 away Swansea 0:2
- 29.08.2026 home West Ham 1:1
This season: Bristol City at home vs Watford FC away
| Metric | Bristol City · at home | Watford FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–2 | 0–1–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| xG for per match | 0.89 | 0.93 |
| xG against per match | 1.77 | 1.93 |
| Shots on target per match | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| Corners per match | 7.33 | 3.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 27.02.2026 Bristol City 1:2 Watford FC
- 07.11.2025 Watford FC 1:1 Bristol City
- 05.04.2025 Bristol City 2:1 Watford FC
- 26.11.2024 Watford FC 1:0 Bristol City
- 20.01.2024 Bristol City 1:1 Watford FC
- 26.12.2023 Watford FC 1:4 Bristol City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Bristol City hold a slight edge over Watford FC in this Championship meeting, although the low confidence level points to a closely contested game rather than a clear advantage. The available outlook favours the hosts, but Watford FC remain firmly in contention, making the balance of the match difficult to separate with certainty.
The scoring expectation is medium, with the market signal leaning towards a more open game. Both teams scoring is described as a coin flip, so there is no strong indication that either side will definitely find the net. The most likely scorelines are 1:1, 2:1 and 2:0, reflecting a match where Bristol City may have enough to prevail but where a draw remains a credible outcome. Overall, the forecast suggests a competitive encounter with a slight home advantage and room for variation in how the scoring develops.
What matters before kick-off
Recent results and team form
Bristol City enter the fixture following a 1-0 home defeat to Lincoln City, while Watford are winless in their last five league matches.
Rob Dickie injury for Bristol City
Bristol City defender Rob Dickie will miss the match against Watford after being stretchered off with a leg injury in their midweek match against Lincoln City.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.