Manchester United — Manchester City: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 54.3% |
| 12 | 75.5% | |
| X2 | 70.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 74.1% / 25.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.0% / 4.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.4% / 8.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 73.7% / 26.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 53.5% / 46.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 34.0% / 66.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 19.0% / 81.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Manchester United host Manchester City in the EPL on 13 September 2026. The assessment gives Manchester City a slight edge, although the expected balance of the contest remains close enough for Manchester United to stay competitive. The likely scorelines include 1:1, 1:2 and 2:2, pointing to a match where the margin could be narrow rather than a clearly one-sided performance.
The main signal is toward both teams scoring, with the game also projected to have a high-scoring character. That suggests Manchester United should have opportunities at home, while Manchester City are considered the more likely side to make the stronger overall impression. A draw remains a credible possibility, particularly if Manchester United can turn their home advantage into consistent attacking pressure.
What matters before kick-off
Midweek Champions League Victory
Manchester United enter Sunday's derby following a 4-0 win against Sabah in the UEFA Champions League on Thursday night.
Manchester United Squad Updates
Head coach Michael Carrick rested Marcus Rashford during Thursday's European fixture as a precaution, while Luke Shaw missed the game as he was not 100 percent ready.
Home Form at Old Trafford
Manchester United won nine of their first 10 Premier League matches at Old Trafford in 2026.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.