Manchester United — Manchester City: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 55.8% |
| 12 | 74.9% | |
| X2 | 69.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 74.5% / 25.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.7% / 4.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 91.7% / 8.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 73.7% / 26.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 53.5% / 46.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 34.0% / 66.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 19.0% / 81.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.09.2026
Manchester United
13th place · 4 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 06.09.2026 away Everton 2:2
- 30.08.2026 home Ipswich 5:2
- 22.08.2026 away Hull 0:2
- 24.05.2026 away Brighton 3:0
- 17.05.2026 home Nott'm Forest 3:2
Manchester City
2nd place · 9 pts after 3Last 5 matches · latest first
- 05.09.2026 home Coventry 1:0
- 28.08.2026 away Crystal Palace 4:1
- 23.08.2026 home Bournemouth 2:1
- 24.05.2026 home Aston Villa 1:2
- 19.05.2026 away Bournemouth 1:1
This season: Manchester United at home vs Manchester City away
| Metric | Manchester United · at home | Manchester City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 1 |
| W–D–L | 1–0–0 | 1–0–0 |
| Goals scored per match | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xG for per match | 4.56 | 2.21 |
| xG against per match | 2.01 | 0.66 |
| Shots on target per match | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| Corners per match | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.01.2026 Manchester United 2:0 Manchester City
- 14.09.2025 Manchester City 3:0 Manchester United
- 06.04.2025 Manchester United 0:0 Manchester City
- 15.12.2024 Manchester City 1:2 Manchester United
- 03.03.2024 Manchester City 3:1 Manchester United
- 29.10.2023 Manchester United 0:3 Manchester City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Manchester United and Manchester City meet in an EPL fixture that points toward an open and competitive contest. The available signals indicate a high-scoring game, with both teams likely to find the net. That suggests the match may be shaped by attacking quality and moments in the final third rather than a purely cautious approach.
Manchester City hold a slight edge in the outcome assessment, with high confidence in that reading. However, the scoring profile leaves room for Manchester United to remain closely involved, particularly if they convert their opportunities. A draw is also consistent with the expected balance of an encounter where both sides score, so the main distinction is a narrow advantage for Manchester City rather than a decisive gap between the teams.
What matters before kick-off
Midweek European Fixtures
Both Manchester clubs featured in European action during the week ahead of the derby: Manchester United earned a 4-0 Champions League win over Sabah, while Manchester City secured a 2-0 victory against Porto.
Manchester City's Away Record at Old Trafford
Manchester City have won nine Premier League away matches at Old Trafford, more than any other visiting team in the competition's history.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.