Maccabi Tel Aviv FC — PFC CSKA Sofia: Win probabilities, 06.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.9% |
| 12 | 71.1% | |
| X2 | 52.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.6% / 49.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.3% / 9.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 72.9% / 27.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 45.8% / 54.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.4% / 75.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.2% / 95.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Maccabi Tel Aviv FC hold a slight but credible edge over PFC CSKA Sofia in this UEFA Europa League qualification tie. The overall assessment points toward the hosts avoiding defeat, although the balance is not so one-sided that a draw can be discounted. The expected character of the match is medium-scoring, suggesting a contest with attacking opportunities but without a clear indication of an open, high-scoring game.
Both teams scoring remains difficult to separate, effectively a coin flip in the available assessment. That uncertainty is reflected in the likely scorelines, which include 1:1 alongside narrow home victories such as 1:0 and 2:0. Maccabi Tel Aviv FC therefore appear better placed, with home advantage providing the main distinction, but PFC CSKA Sofia remain capable of keeping the tie competitive. The most measured reading is a home win or draw, rather than a decisive outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Neutral venue fixture
The first leg of the UEFA Europa League third qualifying round tie between Maccabi Tel Aviv and CSKA Sofia takes place at the neutral Batumi Stadium in Georgia.
Maccabi's previous round
Maccabi Tel Aviv reached the third Europa League qualifying round after defeating Moldovan club Sheriff Tiraspol 6-0 on aggregate.
CSKA Sofia's previous round
CSKA Sofia advanced to the third Europa League qualifying round by beating Qarabag on penalties following a 0-0 aggregate draw.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.