Lommel SK — Yellow-Red KV Mechelen: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.2% |
| 12 | 73.7% | |
| X2 | 63.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.7% / 36.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.3% / 5.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.1% / 16.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.3% / 39.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.0% / 62.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.5% / 79.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.7% / 90.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.60 → now 2.50 |
| X | was 3.30 → now 3.40 |
Match preview
Lommel SK and Yellow-Red KV Mechelen meet in a First Division A fixture that appears finely balanced. The available assessment gives neither side a decisive advantage, with moderate confidence in an evenly matched contest. That points toward a game shaped by small margins rather than a clear pre-match hierarchy.
The scoring outlook is medium, while both teams are considered likely to find the net. A 1:1 draw is among the plausible scorelines, although a narrow result in either direction also fits the assessment, with 1:2 and 2:1 included as alternatives. The market signal leans toward Yellow-Red KV Mechelen avoiding defeat, but the overall picture remains competitive, and Lommel SK should retain a realistic chance of influencing the result.
What matters before kick-off
Lommel SK Recent Form
Lommel SK enter matchday 7 of the Belgian Pro League following a 5-0 away loss to Union Saint-Gilloise, sitting on seven points from their opening six fixtures.
KV Mechelen's Season Start
Yellow-Red KV Mechelen head into their away match against Lommel SK having gathered just two points from six league fixtures.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.